2024 year second Weekly evaluation of lithium products | overall stabilization!
2024 year second Weekly evaluation of lithium products | overall stabilization!
Mica prices stabilized this week. From the demand side, at present, most smelters in Jiangxi have a downward trend in production scheduling, and some integrated manufacturers have completed the update of lithium ore quota in the new year, and temporarily have a low dependence on external mica. Some smelters of foreign mining stones have also gradually stepped into the rhythm of shutdown and production reduction in the near future. Some manufacturers only retain a few production lines for low-level production, maintain long-term delivery, and their demand for upstream mica has weakened. On the supply side, most mining enterprises and traders have been unable to sell goods due to their high costs recently, and the market circulation has shrunk. While some mining enterprises that are still producing consider that some downstream enterprises still need a certain amount of mica to maintain long-term cooperative production, and because the price of lithium salt is gradually stabilizing, they are more resistant to low-cost mica, the price differences between upstream and downstream appear, and the short-term price remains weak and stable.
The overall trend of CIF price of spodumene concentrate began to stabilize this week. Due to the stabilization of the current lithium price, the price of long spodumene priced by the formula in Australian mines is also stable. However, due to the expectation of some domestic buyers that the lithium price will fall from February to March, there is still a certain price reduction. However, the seller's current price reduction is limited, which makes some lithium salt plants' willingness to take delivery of long orders weak, and the recent transaction is relatively cold. It is expected that if the price of lithium salt drops again after the Spring Festival because the terminal demand is less than expected, the price of spodumene will continue to decline along with the market.
The price of lithium carbonate was basically stable this week. On the supply side, some lithium salt enterprises will carry out seasonal maintenance around the Spring Festival. It is preliminarily estimated that the production of lithium carbonate in the domestic market will be reduced by 23% month on month in February; However, the enterprises that purchased lithium ore and lithium salt are still in a state of loss; The forward futures price of superimposed lithium carbonate continues to be higher than the spot price, which is suitable for hedging to lock the future price; In the short term, the pressure of lithium salt enterprises' shipment is not urgent, and the status of selling retail orders at a high price is maintained. On the demand side, the demand side of lithium carbonate in the market also has no obvious willingness to purchase bulk orders at high prices. Taking into account the reduction of orders during the Spring Festival, logistics outages, holidays and other factors, some positive pole enterprises put some orders in February ahead of the production reserve in January, and most positive pole enterprises had a very low production operation rate in January, which was also conducive to reducing unit costs. However, the pre order also means that the market demand will be worse in February. Most cathode enterprises do not accept the idea of high price lithium carbonate after the long order meets the current production demand. On the whole, lithium battery downstream enterprises are in the destocking cycle, and it is difficult to have obvious purchase demand in the short-term market, so it is difficult to support the spot price to perform well; However, the market supply is also expected to decrease, and the price support of lithium salt enterprises also limits the downward space of spot price, and the subsequent spot price of lithium carbonate may maintain a weak and stable operation state as a whole.
The price of lithium hydroxide stabilized in general this week. From the supply side, the current price of lithium salt is inversely linked to the price of lithium carbonate, which continues. Although the price of pyroxene has rapidly returned to the price of lithium salt due to the change of pricing mechanism recently, the production cost is still a certain distance from the price of lithium salt, and the overall production enthusiasm of the lithium salt plant is not high, and it is still dominated by de stocking. On the demand side, the current downstream high nickel extreme has the phenomenon of production scheduling ahead of schedule. In the near future, the production and delivery are still continuing, which has a certain support for the demand for lithium hydroxide. In the short term, the price of lithium hydroxide may remain weak and stable.
[cobalt salts (cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride)]
Cobalt salt prices fell slightly this week. On the supply side, although the smelter has reduced production, there is still a certain inventory at the social level, and the overall supply is still sufficient. On the demand side, at the beginning of the week, there were still some inquiries and sporadic transactions in the market. Near the weekend, due to more replenishment in the early stage, the market demand declined. According to the comprehensive market situation, although the market inquiry still exists, the downstream has limited acceptance of high prices. Considering the problem of the Spring Festival holiday in the later period, some salt plants have a certain willingness to go to the warehouse, and traders also have a certain selling behavior during the week, so the spot price fell slightly. It is expected that in the future, as the end of the year is approaching, the market trading atmosphere may weaken, and the spot price may run smoothly.
[lithium iron phosphate]
This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate stabilized. On the cost side, the price of main raw material lithium carbonate fluctuated slightly, the price of iron phosphate remained stable, and the production cost of iron lithium materials was basically stable. At the raw material side, lithium iron phosphate enterprises set production by sales, and the downstream order reduction led to frequent adjustment of production scheduling plans, and the willingness to stock up before the spring festival began to weaken. The demand at the demand side, power side and energy storage side has weakened significantly. The finished cell is still in the cycle of going to the warehouse. The pre orders during the Spring Festival holiday are limited, and the demand for iron lithium materials is still weak. It is estimated that the price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and stable in the future.
The negative electrode material is still weak this week. In terms of cost, at present, the price of low sulfur petroleum coke continues to rise due to factors such as downstream inventory preparation and refinery inventory reduction arrangement; The raw coke price of oil series needle coke remains low, the current slurry price is at a high level, and the cost support of needle coke is strong. Although the downstream demand is weak, it is difficult to reduce the price; The graphitization outsourcing price is weak and stable. There is little demand for graphitization processing in the current market. In addition, the outsourcing price is close to the cost line. Independent graphitization manufacturers often reduce or stop production, and the price fluctuation is very small. On the demand side, in January, most of the cell factories reduced their production schedules, and the demand for negative electrodes was weak. At present, the problem of overcapacity is still existing, negative electrode manufacturers continue to compete, and the price of negative electrode materials is under pressure.
Electrolyte prices were weak this week. On the cost side, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the core raw material, has basically stabilized. The prices of solvents and additives have also remained stable, and the cost has remained unchanged. On the demand side, the production reduction of downstream cell plants, the strength of goods preparation gradually weakened, and the overall demand was relatively low. On the supply side, most of the hexafluoride plants set their production based on sales, and have a weak willingness to stock up for the Spring Festival. At present, some hexafluoride plants are still selling inventory, and the downstream undertaking is relatively weak. The frequency of hexafluoride purchase by electrolyte plants is low, and the production is basically arranged according to the order. At present, most electrolyte plants' subsequent production scheduling is down, and the subsequent production plan is postponed. It is expected that the electrolyte price will run at a low level in the future.
The trading center of sodium electric positive electrode is still relatively stable, and the quotation of layered oxide positive electrode is in the price range of more than 55000-60000 yuan/ton. At present, most of the manufacturer's quotations are sample delivery quotations, and large price concessions are given based on the trading volume and customer type. Subsequently, it is expected to enter the stage of mass production, and the price of sodium electrode still has room for decline. The mainstream price of domestic biomass hard carbon for negative electrode is nearly 80000/ton, but it is still declining rapidly.