Summary of professional exchanges of lithium resource experts September 19, 2024

Summary of professional exchanges of lithium resource experts  Date September 19, 2024

 1. Current situation of lithium resource market

The production capacity of lithium mines in Jiangxi has experienced shutdowns and reductions, particularly in small and medium-sized smelters, due to the current price

The level of competition has led to widespread losses for enterprises, with some having ceased production or entered a state of maintenance.Even if you have your own

Large enterprises with resources are also facing the pressure of losses, and shareholders have doubts about the continuous losses.

The production plan of lithium ore in Ningde area has also been affected. Although there is a plan to stop production, due to the mining and metallurgy of the mine

The production process of refinery is complex, and it takes time to arrange production suspension.Nonetheless, the production halt plan in Ningde has already been implemented Preparing.

 2. Price trend of lithium resources

The price of lithium resources continues to decline, and the spot price may fall below 65,000 yuan.The main reason for the price drop is

There is a global oversupply of lithium resources, especially high inventory in the domestic market.Although the production of new energy vehicles has increased

However, the rapid growth of the resource side has led to an imbalance between supply and demand in the market.

In the future, prices may fluctuate due to the shutdown or reduction of production by enterprises, but in the long run, the recovery of prices requires the market to be stable

The market has undergone a reshuffle, eliminating some production capacity and reducing inventory to a sufficiently low level.

3. Industry challenges and countermeasures

Lithium battery companies are facing profit pressure brought by falling prices, especially battery factories affected by car factories and energy storage companies

The impact of price pressure.Some enterprises began to re-evaluate their capacity expansion plans to avoid the risks brought by excessive investment

Risk.

The changes in international market policies have an impact on China's lithium battery industry chain, and enterprises need to innovate and seek

New application areas to meet challenges.At the same time, product upgrades and new application areas in the domestic market have also become

For the key.

4. Capacity and supply

The output of lithium salt is expected to be around 1.3 million tons in 2024, although some salt plants have reduced production, the increase in South American projects

The production made up for this impact.The global lithium resource capacity is still large, especially the investment of many new projects at home and abroad

Production.

The amount of lithium resources recovered has increased year by year. Last year, the domestic recovery amount was about 60,000 to 70,000 tons, and this year it is expected to increase by two or three times

Ten thousand tons.Despite the high cost of recycling, the growth rate of the recycling market is still high as the amount of battery scrap increases

Observe.

5. Future outlook

In the long run, the proportion of lithium resources recovered will gradually increase, and it is expected that it may reach 40% to 50% by 2035

50%.However, recycling cannot completely replace the supply of new resources and still relies on the mining of new mineral resources.

Enterprises need to find a balance in price fluctuations, reasonably control production capacity and inventory, and respond to market uncertainties

Sex.At the same time, policy changes and technological innovation in the international market will continue to affect the development of the industry.

Q: How is the production halt of lithium mines in Jiangxi?

A: Lithium mines in Jiangxi have indeed stopped production.During August and September, some mines and smelters have

After the start of production reduction or suspension, especially for small and medium-sized smelters without resources.Even if you have your own resources

Half of the production capacity of the enterprises is also in a stagnant state.Due to the current price level, many companies are in a loss

The damage state is serious and the pressure is high.Therefore, some companies are gradually arranging maintenance and production stoppages.

Q: What is the production halt plan for lithium mines in Ningde?

A: Ningde area does have a production suspension plan, but it has not been fully implemented yet.Official announcement and market interpretation

Although meetings have been held and production plans have been arranged, due to the complex production processes of mines and smelters,

It takes time to dispose of existing production materials and by-products when production is halted.

Q: How is the production of lithium ore in other regions?

A: Lithium production in other regions has also been affected.Some northern factories have stopped production, especially those that rely on African imported ores, because the current price is lower than the cost.Generally, the monthly output of a factory is between one thousand and two thousand tons, which is a loss

The loss is serious, and it may lose tens of millions to hundreds of millions of yuan in a month.The price has been falling all the way, and the enterprise is facing huge losses

Risk of loss.

Q: What is the overall operating rate and market situation of the lithium battery industry?

A: The overall operating rate of the lithium battery industry is low, and the existing production capacity far exceeds the actual demand.Lithium salts and battery materials

The operating rate is less than 50%.The operating rate of salt lake resources is relatively high, while the operating rates of spodumene and mica mines are

60%-70% and about 50%.Many enterprises have reduced or stopped production due to the downturn in the market.

Q: What is the future trend of lithium resource prices?

A: Due to low market expectations, many companies have begun to adjust their production plans.The specific price trend needs to be based on the market

Further observation of changes in demand and supply.

Q: What is the future trend of lithium resource prices?

A: It is very difficult to predict the price of lithium resources.At present, there may be a price drop to 65,000 yuan on the market

or even lower.The main reasons include the fact that the impact of some enterprises' production suspension or reduction is not significant, and the inventory is still high

higher, and the growth rate of the resource side is too fast.In the future, it may experience a period of low price operation, and some

The enterprise may be shut down or merged.Price fluctuations may also be affected by unexpected events.

Q: How will the increase in global production of new energy vehicles affect the lithium resource market?

A: The production of new energy vehicles in the world is indeed increasing, but it has not reached the expected explosive growth.Meanwhile,

The international situation is complex, and some countries may change their lithium circuit routes and turn to other technologies.In addition, energy storage

The growth of the domain has not been as rapid as expected.These factors have led to certain pressure on the lithium resource market.

Q: How about the import and inventory of lithium resources?

A: In the first half of this year, the import volume of lithium ore and lithium carbonate increased significantly, exceeding 2.5 million tons and 105,000 tons respectively

Ton.There is a significant oversupply in the market, with an estimated inventory of ten thousand tons, equivalent to one month's

Consumption.These stocks are distributed among material factories, battery factories, warehouses, and individual investors.

Q: What is the expected supply and demand of lithium salt this year?

A: The production of lithium salt may reach 1.3 to 1.4 million tons this year, but due to the reduction of production in some salt plants, the actual

Production may be slightly lower than expected.Concurrently, the production of projects in South America and SQM has increased, resulting in an increase in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide

The growth rate of lithium has changed, but the overall change is not significant.

Q: What is the impact of the US and European bills on China's lithium battery industry chain?

A: These bills have indeed brought some pressure to China's lithium battery industry chain.We noticed that although some enterprises

The industry has tried to build factories overseas, but it is still squeezed.Therefore, we have adopted various strategies, including going abroad

Joint venture and technological innovation to meet the requirements of low-carbon and zero-carbon.We also work hard in the domestic market

We will vigorously upgrade our products and seek new areas of lithium battery applications, such as ships and other fields.Furthermore, we

Through photovoltaic power generation and lithium battery energy storage, it helps some areas with insufficient power supply to improve their quality of life.

Q: How to deal with the risk of technology spillover and policy paradox in the expansion of Western markets?

A: Significant progress has been made in the field of solid-state batteries, and there may be a large number of applications in the future.Technological spillover risks are indeed

There is, especially at the material end.We don't want China's technology to be exported cheaply, so in the process of cooperation

We will focus on protecting the interests of enterprises and the country.We emphasize that we should deal with these challenges through communication and cooperation

while ensuring the protection of intellectual property rights and markets.

Q: Why did Ningde choose to stop production when demand increased?

A: This question is not directly answered in the text.

Q: Does the production halt in Ningde indicate a lack of confidence in the future of battery production and price recovery?

A: It has nothing to do with confidence.The capacity utilization rate in Ningde is still high, and recently at the lithium battery conference in Yibin

There is a plan to expand the project.The reason for the production halt is more due to the problem of lithium slag treatment faced by the lithium salt plant, which is a

The test is not a lack of confidence in the market.Q: How much production capacity has been affected by the production halt plan in Ningde?How long will it take to resume production?

A: The mineral processing plant in Ningde can produce up to 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per year.The production halt plan is tentatively scheduled for one

It takes about ten days to resume production in August.

Q: How do battery factories and car factories accept the rising price of lithium in the upstream?

A: Battery factories generally accept a small price increase, believing that the current price is too low and there is a lot of pressure.The car factory is also under pressure

Low battery prices, so battery factories hope for stable or slightly rising prices.

Q: During the peak season of demand, will other companies increase production due to the production suspension in Ningde?

A: Other enterprises will not easily increase production, as many still have inventory.If the price is lower than the production cost

Ben, they are unwilling to sell and hope that the price will rise to a reasonable level.

Q: How to solve the pressure of global lithium resource supply, especially under the influence of the Chinese market?

A: China plays an important role in the global supply of lithium resources, especially salt lake enterprises, which can still

Profit.However, lithium extraction enterprises of lepidolite and spodumene are facing loss pressure, especially enterprises like Ningde

If the price continues to be low, it will lead to huge losses.In the short term, the supply elasticity of low-cost suppliers

In the long run, the market needs to balance supply and demand by closing some resource enterprises.In addition,

Price fluctuations are a normal phenomenon, and there may be short-term price increases, but if prices remain low, it will be difficult for companies to

To bear.

Q: What is the current lithium production capacity and the expected production capacity and output in the next two years?

A: Currently, the domestic production capacity of lithium carbonate is about 1.4 million tons, and that of lithium hydroxide is about 900,000 tons

About 400,000 tons, and lithium hydroxide is about 200,000 tons.The actual production may be less than half of the production capacity.Mineral resources

In terms of sources, the combined domestic and foreign production capacity is approximately 1.4-1.5 million tons.In the next two years, domestic and foreign mines will continue to

Expansion, it is expected that the domestic new capacity will be at least 200,000 tons, and projects in Australia and Africa are also in progress.

Q: How is the expansion of the mine's production capacity, especially the new capacity in China and overseas?

A: Domestic mines such as Lijiagou are expanding production, with an estimated new capacity of about 200,000 tons.Australia and Africa are also

Increase production capacity, Pilbara and other projects in Australia are expanding production, and projects in Canada and Africa have been released to some extent

Slowly, but still moving forward.However, due to the low price, the cost of transporting African ores to domestic processing is relatively high,

This has led to slow progress in some projects.

Q: What is the current situation and cost of recycling lithium resources?

A: The recovery level of lithium resources per year is not yet clear, but the cost of recovery is a key factor affecting its economic efficiency

Su.With the growth of market demand, recycling will become an important resource supplement channel.

Q: What is the estimated amount of lithium resource recycling this year?

A: It is expected that the amount of recycling this year will increase compared to last year, possibly by 20,000 to 30,000 tons, due to the increase in the number of discarded batteries The quantity is increasing.

Q: What is the approximate cost of recycling lithium resources?

A: The key cost of recycling is the price of used batteries and black powder.Due to the fluctuation of lithium salt prices in the market The enterprises are generally in a state of loss.

Q: In the long run, will the demand for lithium resources mainly rely on recycling?

A: It is impossible to rely entirely on recycling.Although the proportion of recycling will increase, there are still some lithium resources that cannot be recycled Recovered from recycling.

Q: What is the expected proportion of lithium resource recycling in the future?

A: We expect that by 2035, recycled lithium resources may account for 40% to 50% of total demand.Currently back The collection volume is close to 10% of the demand.