The price increase of lithium iron, hexafluoride, and copper foil is the first to hit the ground

As the end of the year approaches, the price war for new energy vehicles led by top automakers such as Tesla, BYD, and Ideal Motors has once again hit, causing concerns about a vicious cycle of low price competition in the lithium battery supply system.

However, based on multiple indicators such as the latest 2025 price negotiations, market average prices, and tracking of individual prices, it can be seen that the scarce and loss-making links in lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and copper foil have already started to increase prices at the end of the year.

According to market information, price negotiations between battery manufacturers on the supply of H 1 2025 lithium battery materials is drawing to a close, and Ferrous lithium phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, copper foil, etc. Clearly indicated their price increases in this round of bidding.

In addition to price negotiations, lithium battery manufacturers have also reported several rounds of small price increases since the fourth quarter, and the overall quotation of the industry has increased by around 4%. This is mainly driven by the increase in the shipment scale of the new generation of high-pressure dense lithium iron, and the processing fee corresponding to the compaction of 2.55-2.65 g/cm increases by 1000-3000 yuan.

Under certain circumstances, the average market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has rebounded to 60000 yuan/ton (as of November 30), and the weekly increase in the last week of November was 2; Judging from the individual transaction prices, the highest price of lithium hexafluorophosphate once reached 65000 yuan/ton, and the final transaction price reached 61000 yuan/ton. 

During the same period, due to the fluctuation of copper price, the price of copper foil rebounded slightly, with a cumulative increase of 6% since the beginning of the year. At the end of November, the processing fee of copper foil for lithium battery increased by about 1000 yuan/ton, but it is still lower than the cost line of copper foil of more than 20,000 yuan/ton.

In the short term, the increase in the prices of lithium iron and lithium hexafluorophosphate is mainly due to the improvement of supply and demand.

Generally speaking, since November, the momentum of new energy vehicles trade policy is obvious. Power and energy storage batteries actively prevent tariff escalation and competitive exports, and promote the seasonal performance of lithium battery production beyond expectations. In terms of raw material supply, the fluctuation range of lithium carbonate prices has been raised to 75,000-85,000 yuan/ton, forming a certain price support. There are technical barriers to the secondary sintering and oxalic acid processes for high-pressure solid lithium iron, and high-quality production capacity is relatively scarce. 

In terms of lithium hexafluorophosphate, relevant companies mentioned in the record of investor relations activity on November 24th that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has recently "rationally rebounded": driven by policies such as trade-in of new energy vehicles, downstream demand continued to increase in the fourth quarter, and the operating rates of the top three lithium hexafluorophosphate production enterprises reached a high level; Due to patents, costs and other reasons, it is difficult to activate outdated production capacity, resulting in the optimization of the supply and demand structure.

As for the price increase of copper foil, the market thinks that it is mainly the performance of long-term losses of manufacturers and the establishment of the bottom price. In the long run, the structural trend of price increase in Ferrous lithium phosphate is clear. The persistence and extent of the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and copper foil need to observe the utilization of capacity under construction and controlled capacity, as well as the rise in downstream demand at the same time. Some institutions predict that lithium iron batteries will further penetrate into high-end car models, and by 2025, Shenxing Battery and BYD's second-generation blade battery are expected to jointly drive the demand for high-voltage lithium iron to reach 500000 to 800000 tons. The trend that high-voltage solid lithium iron follows fast-charging batteries and becoming the new mainstream of lithium battery market has been further confirmed. Under the same trend, the shipment of lithium battery materials such as fast charging graphite and new lithium salt LiFSI will further increase. The industry tends to think that after entering Q 2 in 2025, lithium battery materials as a whole are expected to overcome the seasonal price correction in the off-season, and experience a temporary price increase after the capacity utilization rate is improved. Some buyers have indicated that the price increase for negative electrodes is about 5%, concentrated on artificial graphite involving secondary particle processes. The price increase of dry diaphragm is estimated to reach 8%. Recently, the Special Committee of Battery Diaphragm of China Plastics Processing Industry Association issued a proposal to battery diaphragm manufacturers, urging them to organize production according to market demand, so as to make the diaphragm price return to a rational state. Market participants pointed out that by 2025, the proportion of new LiFSI will increase to more than 2%, which is expected to open up further revenue growth space for layout enterprises.