Stable price of lithium carbonate: market dynamics and future trend analysis

Against the background that the global demand for electric vehicles and energy storage continues to rise, lithium carbonate, as the core raw material for lithium batteries, directly affects the development of the industry. On December 12, the market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained stable, with the index price of 76,397 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 44 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day, showing a subtle change of the market, according to the latest data.

The current price range of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 75,200-77,900 yuan per ton, with an average price of 76,550 yuan per ton. The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 72,800-73,800 yuan per ton, with an average price of 73,300 yuan per ton. This price trend indicates that the market demand for lithium carbonate is changing. Especially near the end of the year, the downstream material factory just demand procurement situation is not strong, the willingness to replenish the warehouse is low, which makes some traders choose to carry out a relatively low transaction price fluctuation with the material factory, which ultimately led to a downward movement of the centre of gravity of the transaction price in the spot market.

In order to analyze this phenomenon, we should pay attention to the following aspects.

1) The characteristics of the current lithium carbonate market.

In the form of just-demand procurement, the inventory strategy of the material factory is particularly critical. With the approaching of the end of the year, many enterprises tend to be cautious in budgeting and purchasing. Especially in the increasing global economic uncertainty, enterprises have adopted the strategy of "living within our means' to purchase raw materials. This not only affects the activity of the market, but also directly leads to the demand for lithium carbonate not showing significant growth.

At the same time, the stabilization mood of the upstream lithium salt plant is still very strong. Under the context of rising costs and increasing pressure on the supply chain, these manufacturers are reluctant to make concessions on prices easily. Although there have been some low-priced transactions in the market, these adjustments are still short-term phenomena in the whole lithium carbonate price system, and the overall price level is still in a firm state.

2) Inventory and future direction of lithium carbonate.

According to industry statistics, the cumulative inventory level of lithium carbonate has risen recently, and the market's de-stocking range has gradually narrowed. Although the spot price is stable at present, market participants are still cautious. Considering the recovery of downstream demand and the pricing strategy of upstream lithium salt plants, the price of lithium carbonate still facing some downside at this stage.

Looking into the future, with the opening of 2024, the market may enter a new stage of dynamic balance. On the one hand, sales volume of electric vehicles is still rising sharply, especially in China and some European countries, which has promoted the huge demand for new energy materials; On the other hand, consolidation and upgrading of the supply chain may alleviate the existing supply-demand conflict to a certain extent, thus protecting price stability.

Generally speaking, the market investment prospect of lithium carbonate is still full of challenges and opportunities. Against the backdrop of strong demand, the trend of stable to falling prices is likely to continue. However, in order to achieve long-term sustainable development, all parties in the industry need to work together to meet the market challenges, and under the guidance of technological progress and improving production efficiency, increase research investment in new materials and alternative materials.