Lithium carbonate supply and demand may become the norm!

December 20, lithium carbonate futures showed a shock upward trend, as of press time the main contract reported 77,900.0 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.51%.

According to customs data, China imported 19235 tons of lithium carbonate in November, a decrease of 17% from last month and a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to November, it imported a total of 206,922 tons. In November, it imported 12,189 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile, accounting for 63% of the total imports volume; Imports from Argentina were 6,270 tons, accounting for 33%. On December 20th, the price of lithium carbonate index of industrial organizations was 75474 yuan/ton, up by 63 yuan/ton from the previous working day; Battery grade lithium carbonate costs 74250-76850 yuan/ton, with an average price of 75550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 71800 to 72800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72300 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Last week, the social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 112 tons to 108100 tons on a month-on-month basis. Other links go to inventory, and downstream inventory accumulates slightly. The overall inventory has turned from destocking to accumulation. 

Industry point of views: the supply and demand situation of lithium new energy industry chain is not short-lived, but the normal state of lithium carbonate market in the next decade or even decades. With the further enrichment of lithium resources to the production field, in the medium and long term, the cost of recycling will constitute the upward resistance of lithium resource prices, and the salt lake production cost line and the recycling production cost line will constitute the fundamental support level and the fundamental pressure level of lithium salt price respectively. Toward the end of the year, for the downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, the seasonal peak trend is still continuing, and there may be further downside for upstream raw materials. On the whole, the supply and demand situation in the new year is still strong, and the marginal cost and price reduction space of lithium carbonate are relatively limited. Negative electrode materials enterprises should pay attention to the opportunities of low-cost purchase and hedging below 70,000 yuan/ton. Other related companies said Volkswagen Group's battery company PowerCo announced a strategic partnership with Canadian lithium developer Patriot Battery Metals, according to the agreement, the Volkswagen Group will invest $48 million to acquire Patriot's 9.9% of the issued and circulating common shares. 01 contract positions should be shifted to new positions in the near future. Operation, the supply is relatively sufficient, the spot market purchasing sentiment slightly warmed up, in addition, some of the participants at the end of the year there is a certain amount of back to the capital considerations and increase shipments, the follow-up or revert to the long term logic of oversupply, the futures price or to maintain the weak oscillation.