Weekly evaluation - lithium price center shifts downwards

Weekly evaluation - lithium price center shifts downwards

1) Lithium carbonate

This week, the spot price center of gravity of lithium carbonate moved down. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,800 yuan/ton. Compared with last week's average price, it dropped by about 500 yuan/ton. Judging from the current market transaction, as this week is in a special period of the New Year, some companies are involved in year-end financial report, so the buying mood has weakened this week. And there are signs that the supply and demand of lithium carbonate storage will double down in January 2025. Under the pessimistic influence of the inventory maintenance plan of some upstream lithium salt plant and the weakening of downstream demand, it is estimated that the output of lithium carbonate will decrease by 9% in January. Downstream material factories have gradually ended regarding the pre-Spring Festival stocking, coupled with expectations of reduced production and inventory in January, resulting in a weakened purchasing sentiment. Considering the double decline in supply and demand of lithium carbonate, combined with the circulation inventory level of lithium carbonate, it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate within a range.

2) Lithium hydroxide

Compared with last week, lithium hydroxide rose slowly by 250 yuan/ton this week.

In the market, upstream lithium salt factories continues to offer more than 70000 yuan/ton, and the recent frequent dimension reduction in January further supports its price increase attitude; Although downstream ternary material factories and terminals have made some inquiries, their willingness to receive goods is not strong because of the current high prices and no batch purchase plans.

Generally speaking, due to the decline in downstream demand and the end of most downstream stocks before the end of the year, the price of lithium hydroxide has no obvious upward momentum recently. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range.

3) Lithium iron phosphate

The market price of lithium iron phosphate has slightly decreased this week, with an overall average decrease of about 110 yuan/ton. The cost of lithium carbonate showed a rapid downward trend this week, with a drop of about 450 yuan/ton. Although there is no obvious change in processing fees this week, it is expected that the processing fee may increase slightly in the short term in view of the strong willingness of upstream manufacturers to raise prices. At present, the market mainly follows the long-term agreed price in December and the price remains relatively stable. Recently, leading battery manufacturers have been in talks with downstream enterprises regarding the supply of lithium iron phosphate next year. According to the expectation of SMM, a market research company, the overall processing fee in Ferrous lithium phosphate may increase slightly. In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of the lithium iron phosphate industry was relatively high this week. On the demand side, downstream battery factories maintained a high production enthusiasm at the end of the year, which was a great increase compared with the same period last year.

4) Lithium cobaltate

This week, the price of lithium cobaltate remained stable, with prices of 134000 yuan/ton, 138000 yuan/ton, and 150000 yuan/ton for 4.2 V, 4.4 V, and 4.5 V lithium cobaltate, respectively, unchanged from last week. The main reason is that the prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and cobalt oxide have not changed significantly at the raw material end, while the cost of lithium cobaltate has remained stable. In December, the output of lithium cobaltate decreased by 3% compared with last month. As the end of the year approaches, the demand for terminals weakens, and battery factory mainly purchases on demand. A small drop in orders led to a reduction in production plans. Looking into the future, it is expected that the price of lithium cobaltate will maintain a slight downward trend. Due to the continued weak downstream demand, the pace of stocking by enterprises will slow down at the end of the year, and the market supply and demand pattern will be difficult to change in the short term.