Analysis and Prospect of Global Lithium Battery and Six Major Material Markets from 2023 to 2027

The capital expenditure of midstream lithium battery material enterprises has slowed down, and the conditions for supply and demand easing are gradually being met. 

The electrolyte and structural components with significant and stable cost curve differentiation are expected to have a clear bottom profit first. 

With the gradual decline of lithium carbonate prices and the stabilization of graphite prices, 

the suppression of profits by inventory problems in the positive and negative electrode links is also expected to gradually clear. 

In terms of the application of new technologies, 

the product differentiation brought about by the iteration of new technologies such as lithium manganese iron phosphate 

and composite copper foil will be a key tool for optimizing the competitive landscape in the long run.

Electrolyte: Lithium bis (fluorosulfonyl) imide "comes from behind", one super strong, and stable

The trend of lithium bis (fluorosulfonyl) imide (LiFSI) replacing lithium hexafluorophosphate as the mainstream lithium salt for the next generation of electrolytes is becoming increasingly evident.

 LiFSI not only has excellent thermal stability, but also outperforms lithium hexafluorophosphate in conductivity and other aspects,

 which can extend battery life, improve charging and discharging power, and enhance safety.

Solid electrolytes are the ultimate form of electrolytes, and it will still take 5-10 years for them to be fully mass-produced.

 At present, solid-state electrolytes are almost being followed up and iterated by leading electrolyte companies, and the cost is still high.

 There is a lack of supporting equipment manufacturers, and mass production still takes time.

Diaphragm: "Wet method" mainstream, competition "one super, many strong", steady progress

Wet membrane coating technology is the current and future mainstream technology direction. 

The wet process has a low melting point, and the heat resistance of wet membranes is poor, so coating technology has become a key technical path. 

Although the development of solid-state batteries will have a disruptive impact on separator materials, given their high cost and low production capacity, 

they are unlikely to be widely adopted in the short term.

Diaphragm belongs to a typical heavy asset and high barrier industry. 

The industrial characteristics of "heavy assets and high barriers" determine that the diaphragm industry presents a highly scaled and integrated development pattern. 

Enjie Co., Ltd. is a leading technology in wet process membranes in China, with a yield rate of over 90% and a domestic market share of over 30%. It is the absolute leader in the domestic membrane market.

Positive electrode: Multiple technological routes are advancing simultaneously, and the market concentration is most dispersed among the "four main materials"

Multiple technologies such as ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate will advance simultaneously in the medium to long term, 

anchoring in segmented markets and leveraging their respective advantages.

 Ternary lithium is still the preferred choice in the high-end passenger car market;

 Lithium iron phosphate is penetrating into the low-end passenger car, commercial vehicle, and energy storage markets; 

Lithium cobalt oxide will continue to have advantages in small electronic products due to its stable charge and discharge;

 And lithium manganese oxide will still maintain a certain share in the automotive market. 

The coexistence of multiple systems is necessary to solve the problem of single resource scarcity in China. 

On the path of technological iteration, ternary materials are dominated by high nickel, cobalt free, and monocrystalline processes; 

Lithium iron phosphate is mainly doped with metals.

In terms of industrial structure, the concentration of the positive electrode material industry is the lowest among the four major materials, and competition is fierce. 

Among them, the market concentration of lithium iron phosphate is higher than that of ternary lithium. 

Three element material companies are increasing investment and improving control in upstream raw material production and other processes;

 Lithium iron phosphate material companies reduce costs by increasing their own iron source production capacity.

Negative electrode: Integrated development of artificial graphite, accelerated penetration of silicon-based negative electrode, stable "three big and four small" pattern

In terms of technological layout, artificial graphite will remain the mainstream in the medium to long term, while silicon-based negative electrodes will accelerate penetration. 

At present, the specific capacity of graphite is close to the theoretical upper limit, and there is little room for improvement. 

Therefore, silicon-based negative electrodes with higher specific capacity have become a technological breakthrough direction. 

The theoretical capacity of pure silicon negative electrode can reach 4200mAh/g, which is more than 10 times that of graphite negative electrode. 

However, its safety, lifespan, and charging and discharging functions are poor, requiring continuous breakthroughs in material technology.

In terms of industrial structure, the competition pattern of negative electrode materials is relatively stable, and the market concentration is high.

 Due to the crucial importance of high energy consuming graphitization processes for negative electrode materials, 

it is common to choose self built graphitization production for negative electrode materials in energy rich provinces. 

Overall, China's negative electrode material enterprises have maintained a pattern of "three big and four small" for a long time. 

The "Big Three" are Betray, Putailai, and Shanshan Shares, while the "Small Four" are Shangtai Technology, Zhongke Electric, Dongguan Kaijin, and Xiangfenghua.

 At the same time, the increasingly strict environmental impact assessment approval has restricted the capacity expansion of small factories.

 In the short term, the pattern of "three big and four small" will continue, and it is still difficult to emerge as an absolute leader.