Some production lines have been shut down! Futures prices are approaching 80,000 yuan/ton! Will the price of lithium carbonate rebound?

Some production lines have been shut down! Futures prices are approaching 80,000 yuan/ton! Will the price of lithium carbonate rebound? 

 On September 30th, the main contract for lithium carbonate lc2411 once reached 81,000 yuan/ton during the trading session, and finally closed at 79,750 yuan/ton. What is the future trend of lithium carbonate price? 

According to the data of China Lithium Industry CLPC, in August 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate price was below 80,000 yuan/ton. On August 30, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.1% from the previous month and a decrease of 59.3% from the same period last year; The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 75,000 yuan/ton, down 8.0% from the previous month and down 59.6% from the same period last year. In mid-August, the price of lithium carbonate stopped falling and rebounded slightly in late August, mainly due to the impact of supply-side production cuts. The production schedule for downstream cathode materials in September and October is on the rise, in anticipation of the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", which has boosted market demand. The superposition of factors on both the supply and demand sides led to the halt of the decline and a slight rebound in lithium carbonate prices in mid-to-late August. 

In the futures market, the current price spread of lithium carbonate futures at the end of August has expanded. On August 30, 2024, the closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 78,200 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous month and down 65.7% from the same period last year. The month-on-month decline was smaller than the month-on-month decline in spot prices of lithium carbonate, and the month-end price difference was 6,650 yuan/ton. 

On the supply side, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association analyzed that in August, the lithium industry was affected by price, with some companies continuing to reduce production and some production lines being shut down. Overall production remained unchanged from the previous month. 

In August, China's lithium salt production slightly decreased compared to July. According to the statistics of the Lithium Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in August 2024, the national lithium carbonate production was about 55,000 tons, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the previous month; The national lithium hydroxide production is about 39,000 tons, up 2.5% from the previous month; The national production of lithium chloride was about 1,736 tons, down 0.3% from the previous month; The national production of lithium metal was about 312 tons, down 1.6% from the previous month. In August, the national lithium salt production was equivalent to about 92,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), up 0.6% from the previous month. 

In terms of the latest market trends, data released by SMM on September 30th showed that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate index was 75,143 yuan/ton on that day, up 86 yuan/ton from the previous working day; The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 74,800-76,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 75,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. On the last trading day before the National Day holiday, the pre-holiday stock preparation of downstream material factories has ended, and the overall purchasing sentiment is relatively cold. 

According to the data released by Shanghai Steel Union, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate on September 30 was the same as the previous day, with an average price of 76,500 yuan/ton. 

In the futures market, on September 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate lc2411 once reached 81,000 yuan/ton during the trading session, and finally closed at 79,750 yuan/ton, up 2,150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase of 2.7%. 

The lithium carbonate data analyst of the business agency believes that the lithium carbonate market showed a weak trend of fluctuation in September. The arrival of the peak season of demand and the growth of demand in the fields of new energy vehicles and energy storage provide certain support for the market. However, the unsatisfactory rate of inventory reduction and the dynamic changes in market supply and demand may make it difficult for prices to rise or fall sharply. 

In the latest investor relations activity record sheet, Duofu Duo (002407) mentioned that the current price of lithium carbonate is relatively low, and there is little room for further decline. In recent years, the production capacity of lithium carbonate at home and abroad has been continuously expanded, and the market supply is abundant. Against the backdrop of oversupply, some high-cost production capacity may be forced to exit the market. However, with the continuous improvement of new energy vehicles and energy storage business, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in the future.