Current Situation And Prospects Of Lithium Salt Market, Prediction Of Lithium Carbonate Price Trend (October/2025)

Current Situation And Prospects Of Lithium Salt Market, Prediction Of Lithium Carbonate Price Trend (October/2025)

|Peter Lee, Senior Analyst Of Lithium Battery, Shares On The Topic Of "Development Status And Future Prospects Of Lithium Salt Market".

She Stated That Clpc Expects Global Lithium Carbonate Production To Reach Around 1.37 Million Tons By 2025, With China Contributing Approximately 70% Of The Production; It Is Expected That By 2030, The Global Production Of Lithium Carbonate Is Expected To Reach Around 2.4 Million Tons, With China Continuing To Contribute The Main Increase.

In Terms Of Supply And Demand Balance, China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That The Global Lithium Carbonate Market May Maintain A Situation Of Oversupply From 2025 To 2030, With The Magnitude Of Lithium Carbonate Oversupply Expected To Narrow Compared To Other Years From 2025 To 2026. It Is Expected That From 2025 To 2027, The Global Energy Storage Market May Become A New Driving Force For Demand, Coupled With A Steady Increase In Demand In The Power Market; Long Term Resources Are Surplus, And The Release Of Some High Cost Projects May Be Delayed.

Current Situation Of Lithium Salt Market:

Unexpected Demand Drives The Depletion Of Lithium Salt Inventory, And Significant Price Fluctuations Intensify Market Competition

Review Of Prices For Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate And Lithium Hydroxide In China

From Late July 2025 To Late August 2025:

In August, The Spot Price Of Lithium Carbonate Rose Sharply, With A Month On Month Increase Of Nearly 20%. The Futures Price Of The Main Contract Also Experienced Multiple Limit Ups And Exceeded The 90000 Yuan/Ton Mark. The Current Rise Is Mainly Affected By Disputes Over Mining Rights Among Multiple Lithium Mining Companies In Jiangxi Region, Among Which The Shutdown Of The Jianxiawo Mine Has Led To A Significant Reduction In The Production Of Lithium Carbonate At The End Of Lithium Mica. Driven By Market Sentiment And A Reversal In Supply And Demand Patterns, The Monthly Average Price Of Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate In August Has Approached 79000 Yuan/Ton.

The Spot Circulation Of Lithium Hydroxide Remained Tight In August. In The First Ten Days, Lithium Carbonate And Lithium Ore Resonated And Rose. The Sentiment Of Lithium Hydroxide Upstream And Downstream Negotiations Has Changed, With Individual Quotes Continuously Rising And The Price Difference Between Hydrocarbons Rapidly Narrowing. The Inventory Turnover Of Manufacturers Is Obvious, And There Is A Strong Reluctance To Sell.

From Late August 2025 To Late September 2025:

The Spot Price Of Lithium Carbonate Fell In September, With A Month On Month Decrease Of 6%. From The Perspective Of Supply And Demand, The Industry Has Entered A Peak Demand Season This Month, With Downstream Material Factories Actively Purchasing And Slightly Extending Inventory Cycles. In Terms Of Supply, The Increase In Production Of Spodumene Effectively Compensated For The Reduction In Supply Of Lithium Mica In Jiangxi, But The Total Supply For The Month Was Still Lower Than The Strong Demand, Forming A Clear Pattern Of Destocking. The Supply-Demand Gap Is Mainly Met By Consuming The Accumulated Social Inventory In The Early Stage, So It Has Not Caused Substantial Pressure On Immediate Supply. Combined With The Technical Pullback Demand After The Sharp Rise In Prices In August, The Market's Bullish Sentiment Cooled Down, And The Monthly Average Price Of Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate Fell To 74100 Yuan/Ton In September.

In September, The Spot Price Of Lithium Hydroxide Continued To Rise, And The Market Supply And Demand Continued To Tighten. Downstream Demand Increased Significantly Due To Better Than Expected Orders And Pre Holiday Stocking Plans; Upstream Salt Factories Have A Strong Reluctance To Sell, And Individual Quotes Remain High. Despite A Slight Decline In Lithium Carbonate And Lithium Ore Prices, Lithium Hydroxide Prices Have Maintained A Slight Upward Trend Throughout The Month As The Overall Market Continues To Deplete Inventory.

Lithium Carbonate Production Growth: Supply Side Reduction In Jiangxi And Qinghai Regions, With Spodumene Driving Continuous Growth In Lithium Carbonate Production; Demand Drives Destocking And Supports Prices

According To China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd.'S Understanding, Although The Supply Of Lithium Mica In Jiangxi And Salt Lakes In Qinghai Was Somewhat Affected During August And September, The Overall Production Of Lithium Carbonate Still Maintained A Sustained Growth Trend Thanks To The Increase In The Supply Of Spodumene.

With The Arrival Of The Peak Consumption Season Of "Golden September And Silver October" And The Rapid Growth Of Demand, The Lithium Carbonate Market Has Formed A Clear Pattern Of Destocking. China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That From September To December 2025, The Domestic Lithium Carbonate Market May Show A Shortage Of Supply, Which Is Expected To Provide Some Support For The Price Of Lithium Carbonate.

In Terms Of Inventory, According To The Monthly Inventory Situation Of China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. China's Lithium Carbonate Samples, Since Entering The Second Half Of The Year, Lithium Carbonate Has Shown An Overall Trend Of Destocking. As Of The End Of September, The Monthly Inventory Days Of Lithium Carbonate In Upstream Smelters Have Decreased From Around 18 Days In March To Around 8.45 Days.

The Lithium Hydroxide Industry Is Mainly Based On Sales And Production, With Inactive Zero Order Transactions; The Demand For Ternary Battery Cells Is Slowing Down, And The Market Supply And Demand Pattern Is Stabilizing

According To China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd., The Lithium Hydroxide Industry Is Currently Mainly Based On Production Through Sales, And There Is No Active Zero Order Trading In The Market; In Terms Of Supply And Demand Balance, China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That The Chinese Lithium Hydroxide Market May Experience A Slight Supply Shortage From October To December, And Since June, The Monthly Inventory Of Lithium Hydroxide In Smelters Has Also Shown A Trend Of Destocking.

How Will The Future Supply And Demand Pattern Evolve?

Review And Prospect Of Global New Energy Vehicle Market

From 2018 To 2024, New Energy Vehicles, As An Important Lever For Implementing The Dual Carbon Goals Of Various Countries, Have Experienced Rapid Growth In Production And Sales Under The Guidance Of Funding Subsidies And Supervision; From 2025 To 2030, China's Lithium Battery Supply Chain Layout+Technological Breakthroughs → Global Car Sales Maintain Stable Growth Rate, And The Penetration Rate Of New Energy Vehicles Is The Trend. China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Expects Global Sales Of New Energy Vehicles To Reach Around 30 Million Units By 2030.

Growth And Dominance In 2025: The Global Penetration Rate Of New Energy Vehicle Sales Has Surged From 2% To Over 23%, Mainly Driven By China (With A Market Share Of 71%) And Policy Driven European Markets, While The United States Lags Behind Due To Infrastructure And Political Barriers.

Market Driving Forces: Policy Incentives, Technological Progress, And Increased Consumer Environmental Awareness Collectively Drive The Transition To New Energy Vehicles.

Review And Prospect Of Global Energy Storage Market

The Main Growth Regions Of The Global Energy Storage Market Will Still Be Concentrated In Three Major Regions: China, The United States, And Europe; Affected By The 2030 Vision, Emerging Regions Such As The Middle East, Australia, And Southeast Asia Have Released A Huge Demand For Large-Scale Energy Storage.

China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That Global Energy Storage Demand Is Expected To Increase By Around 63% Year-On-Year In 2025 Compared To 2024; In 2026, There May Be A Slight Slowdown, With A Year-On-Year Growth Rate Of Around 15%; The Compound Annual Growth Rate Of Global Energy Storage Demand Is Expected To Remain Around 15% From 2026 To 2030.

The Proportion Of Iron And Lithium Will Continue To Increase: Thanks To Cost Advantages And Safety; The Supply Chain Threat Caused By The Cobalt Export Ban Will Further Squeeze The Market Share Of Ternary Materials

China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Expects That In The Future, The Proportion Of Lithium Iron Phosphate In Global Lithium-Ion Battery Production Is Expected To Continue To Increase Due To Its Cost Advantage And Safety. It Is Expected That The Proportion Of Lithium Iron Phosphate In Global Lithium-Ion Battery Production Will Be Around 67% By 2025, And This Data Is Expected To Increase To Around 75% By 2030.

In Terms Of Ternary Batteries, Due To Cobalt Being One Of The Core Materials Of Ternary Batteries, The Supply Chain Threat Caused By The Export Ban On Cobalt By The Democratic Republic Of Congo Has Led To A Continuous Rise In Cobalt Prices, Driving Up The Cost Of Ternary Batteries And Further Squeezing The Market Share Of Ternary Materials.

China's Contribution To The Main Increment Of Lithium Carbonate: The Integration Of Industry Resources Is Gradually Deepening, And The Expected Proportion Of Long-Term Recycling Is Increasing

When It Comes To The Forecast Of Global Lithium Carbonate Production In The Future, China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That The Global Lithium Carbonate Production Is Expected To Reach Around 1.37 Million Tons By 2025, With China Contributing About 70% Of The Production; It Is Expected That By 2030, The Global Production Of Lithium Carbonate Is Expected To Reach Around 2.4 Million Tons, With China Continuing To Contribute The Main Increase.

In Terms Of Supply And Demand Balance, China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That The Global Lithium Carbonate Market May Maintain A Situation Of Oversupply From 2025 To 2030, With The Magnitude Of Lithium Carbonate Oversupply Expected To Narrow Compared To Other Years From 2025 To 2026.

In The Future, The Contribution Of Lithium Carbonate Production From The Recycling End May Gradually Increase.

The Gross Profit Margins Of Various Raw Materials For Lithium Carbonate Vary Greatly, And The Profitability Of The Recycling Industry Has Slightly Improved, But Still Shows A Slight Loss

After Comparing The Gross Profit Margins Of Various Links In The Lithium Industry Chain By China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. In 2025, It Was Found That The Gross Profit Margins Of Various Raw Material Ends Of Lithium Carbonate Vary Greatly. In The Salt Lake Lithium Extraction Sector, The Best Enterprise's Gross Profit Margin Can Reach 60%, And The Industry Average Level Is Better Than Other Links; In Contrast, Most Recycling Industry Companies Are In A State Of Small Losses And Break Even, With An Average Operating Rate Of Only Around 26% In The Third Quarter.

In 2025, China Will Relax Restrictions On The Import And Export Of Black Powder To Improve Resource Recovery Efficiency And Reduce External Dependence; Long Term Will Accelerate The Development Of Domestic Lithium Recycling Industry

 China Is The World's Largest Producer And Smelter Of Black Powder; With The Release Of Overseas Wet Process Production Capacity, The Amount Of Regenerated Lithium Metal In Europe, America, Japan, And South Korea Will Gradually Increase

China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That The Total Amount Of Recyclable Lithium Worldwide Is Expected To Increase Year By Year From 2025 To 2030, With A Compound Annual Growth Rate Of 20%. It Is Expected That The Total Amount Of Recyclable Lithium Worldwide Will Grow To Around 155000 Metal Tons By 2030.

Limited Increment Of Lithium Hydroxide: Demand For High Nickelization Development, But The Market Share Of Ternary Power Is Constantly Being Suppressed

Although China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Expects Ternary Batteries To Develop Towards High Nickel In The Future, Considering That The Market Share Of Ternary Batteries May Continue To Be Occupied By Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries, China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Expects Limited Incremental Production Of Lithium Hydroxide In The Future.

In 2025, The Global Lithium Hydroxide Market May Show A Tight Supply Balance, But The Surplus Situation May Continue Thereafter, And The Surplus Of Lithium Hydroxide May Gradually Narrow By 2030.

The Concentration Of Lithium Resource Supply Will Decrease From 2022 To 2030, And The Marginal Growth Rate Will Slow Down Synchronously

China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Predicts That From 2025 To 2030, The Global Supply Of Primary And Renewable Lithium Resources Is Expected To Continue To Rise, Or Increase At A Compound Annual Growth Rate Of 11%. At The Same Time, The Concentration Of Lithium Resource Supply Will Also Decrease, And The Traditional Pattern Of Australia, Brazil, And Chile As The Main Resource Supply Countries Will Be Broken. Argentina, China, Zimbabwe, And Other African Countries Will Have A Significant Impact On Traditional Supply Regions.

The Future Increase In Lithium Resources Will Still Mainly Come From Spodumene And Salt Lakes; China, Africa, And South America Are The Core Incremental Areas

According To China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd., The Future Increase In Lithium Resources May Still Mainly Come From Spodumene And Salt Lakes, With China, Africa, And South America As The Core Increment Areas. In Addition To Popular Future Supply Countries, Countries Such As The Democratic Republic Of Congo, Mali, Bolivia, Mexico, Central Asia, Russia, Myanmar, Etc. Have Clear Information On Large-Scale Lithium Deposits. These Countries Will Serve As Emerging Forces In Lithium Supply And Have An Impact On The Traditional Lithium Resource Supply Pattern.

The Considerable Growth Rate Of Demand Drives The Continuous Increase Of Resource Side Projects

Overall, China Lithium Products Technology Co., Ltd. Expects The Global Lithium Carbonate Market To Experience A Destocking Trend By 2025.

In Terms Of Lithium Salt Prices, Considering The Supply And Demand Situation, The Demand For Lithium Batteries Will Grow Rapidly From 2021 To 2022 Driven By The Demand For Power Terminals; However, Due To The Fact That Most Of The Resource Side Projects Are Resuming Production, The Supply Increment Is Insufficient, And The Resource Gap Is Reappearing, Driving Lithium Prices To Rise Rapidly; From 2023 To 2030, Due To The Slowing Growth Rate Of The Electric Vehicle And Energy Storage Markets, Coupled With The Concentrated Release Of Resources, The Supply-Demand Balance Of The Lithium Salt Market Has Turned Into Surplus, Dragging Prices Down Continuously. At The Same Time, The Central Operating Cost Of Lithium Salt Is Expected To Further Decline With The Deepening Of Industry Integration And The Continuous Release Of Low - And Medium Cost Lithium Resource Capacity.

It Is Expected That From 2025 To 2027, The Global Energy Storage Market May Become A New Driving Force For Demand, Coupled With A Steady Increase In Demand In The Power Market; Long Term Resources Are Surplus, And The Release Of Some High Cost Projects May Be Delayed.