Nickel prices rise, fall, and fluctuate, while demand for stainless steel costs under pressure remains to be verified

Nickel prices rise, fall, and fluctuate, while demand for stainless steel costs under pressure remains to be verified in October 2025

Recently, nickel prices have been fluctuating, with the Indonesian nickel mine incident erupting in mid month. Market risk aversion has led to short 

positions leaving the market, resulting in a strong rise in prices. However, due to the lack of significant impact on the industry, nickel prices have 

gradually begun to decline in recent times.

There is a lack of short-term changes in this area, but the tight nickel sulfate has formed some support. In terms of nickel ore, the mainstream

 premium for nickel ore is expected to remain at $23-25 per wet ton in the second half of September, and the price of nickel ore will remain firm. 

The actual impact of the Indonesian nickel mine incident on the news is limited, but we continue to monitor whether the control of mining sites 

and future regulation will become stricter. Coupled with the upcoming nickel mine approval work in Indonesia in October 2026, the overall 

uncertainty of nickel mines has increased, and it is expected that the overall price will remain firm.

In terms of refined nickel, there is currently no obvious supply-demand contradiction in the short term, but LME continues to stockpile and 

suppress the market. The overall fluctuation in spot goods is limited, and downstream purchases are maintained on demand without large-scale 

replenishment actions. The key focus is on inventory. In the first half of the year, there was a differentiation between domestic and foreign inventory, 

and the continuous export and hidden inventory problems in China led to a continued narrowing of the price difference between domestic and 

foreign markets. However, in recent times, domestic and foreign inventories have gradually tended to accumulate, and the focus is on whether the 

inventory accumulation continues. If there is a clear accumulation domestically, nickel prices may face further pressure. There is no sign of widening in

 the short-term price difference between domestic and foreign markets, and the pressure of external stock accumulation is highlighted. In the medium 

to long term, with the continued production of new production capacity in Indonesia, there may be little internal or external driving force, and the

 fluctuation space will significantly narrow.

In terms of nickel iron, market prices continue to rise. Downstream stainless steel prices are relatively weak in the short term, but traditional peak 

season expectations are still difficult to falsify, and there is overall demand support for nickel iron. Considering that the short-term surplus of

 nickel iron is concentrated on the trade side, the overall supply and demand lack obvious suppression, and there is still some room for price increase,

 the focus is on the downstream stainless steel profit situation. Currently, the continuous loss of stainless steel profits is expected to exert certain 

suppression on the rise of nickel iron. At the same time, due to the overall pattern of nickel iron maintaining a slight surplus, the focus in the future 

will be on the shipment situation on the trade side. If the trade side concentrates on shipping, nickel iron will face certain downward pressure.

The price of nickel sulfate continues to rise, and market inquiries are active. The intermediate products on the raw material side maintain a tight 

pattern, and the discount coefficient continues to rise. At present, cobalt prices are rising and raw materials are tight. MHP demand is relatively active, 

and it is expected that prices will be strong. Downstream ternary inquiries on the demand side have significantly improved, and the temporary 

supply-demand mismatch of nickel sulfate has led to a strong price increase. But in the medium term, there will be new production capacity put into

 operation, and the sustainability of the demand side is not high. The overall supply and demand are expected to return to loose, and new growth 

points are still needed for price increases.

Overall, nickel prices rose in the early stage due to the influence of mining, but did not have a significant impact on the market, and nickel prices 

gradually fell back. But there is still significant uncertainty at present, mainly whether the monitoring of nickel mines will continue to become stricter

 in the future. If the event continues to escalate, the possibility of nickel prices soaring cannot be ruled out. The medium and long-term industrial 

logic remains unchanged, and the price operation center remains in the downward channel, with a focus on cost side disturbances. The short-term 

macro impact has increased, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to have a certain impact on the market. The uncertainty of

 nickel prices has also increased, and the expected operating price is currently between 118000-125000 yuan/ton.

In terms of stainless steel, the price of 304 has risen and fallen. In the early stage, it was mainly affected by Indonesian nickel mines, but as the 

sentiment of the event subsided, stainless steel gradually regained its previous gains. At present, stainless steel as a whole lacks obvious driving 

force, and the main focus is still on the cost side. In terms of cost, nickel iron chromium iron remains strong, but the thin profit margin of stainless 

steel is expected to suppress raw material prices, and the upward space is limited. The overall pattern of nickel iron maintains a slight surplus,

 but currently the purchasing sentiment on the trade side is high, and the surplus has not been reflected in reality. The focus is on the shipment 

situation on the trade side. If the trade side sells in a concentrated manner, nickel iron may face the risk of price decline. On a fundamental level, 

the supply side remains relatively stable, with some steel mills experiencing reduced production due to policy influences, but the magnitude is

 relatively limited. Additionally, some steel mills are experiencing incremental coverage reductions, resulting in overall production remaining stable. 

The expectation of peak season on the demand side has not been proven false, please pay attention to the actual demand situation. The overall 

supply and demand maintain a slight balance, and inventory is unlikely to have significant fluctuations. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain 

a range of fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the risk of negative feedback from the industry after demand falls short of expectations, 

which will drive the resonance and decline of raw materials.