Is the import of lithium concentrate increasing, or will the import of lithium carbonate continue to increase?

Around November 20th, 2024, import and export data of lithium products related to the cobalt and lithium battery industry chain was released. The data shows that the import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate in October showed an upward trend compared with last month. Chile is one of the main sources of lithium carbonate imports in China. In October, the amount of lithium carbonate delivered to China continued to rebound, reaching about 17000 tons, up by 2% from the previous month. Considering the shipping cycle, it is expected that China's lithium carbonate imports will continue to increase in November. The import and export situation of battery materials has been integrated as follows:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the domestic import of lithium concentrate in October 2024 was about 504,362 physical tons, equivalent to about 49006 tons of LCE, and the physical tons increased by 33.74% from the previous month.

Among them, the imported lithium concentrate from Australia is about 363,603 physical tons, accounting for 72.09% of the total imported lithium concentrate in China; The lithium concentrate imported from Zimbabwe is about 52,873 physical tons, accounting for 10.48% of the total domestic lithium concentrate imports; The lithium concentrate imported from Nigeria is about 42,017 physical tons, accounting for 8.33% of the total imported lithium concentrate in China; The lithium concentrate imported from Brazil is about 8,814 physical tons, accounting for 1.75% of the total domestic lithium concentrate imports; The lithium concentrate imported from Canada is about 36,672 physical tons, accounting for 7.27% of the total import of lithium concentrate in China; The lithium concentrate imported from Rwanda is about 382.46 physical tons, accounting for about 0.08% of the total import of lithium concentrate in the country. 

On a month-on-month basis, the increase in imported concentrate in October mainly came from Australia and Canada, with import volumes increasing by 74.71% and 107.48% respectively. In addition, the import of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe and Brazil decreased significantly compared to the previous period, by 34.50% and 71.94%, respectively.

In addition, it is worth mentioning that 50,600 tons of lithium ore were imported from South Africa in October, with an average price of $ 181 per ton, down 67.56% from last month; 11,500 tons of lithium ore were imported from Nigeria, with an average of $ 170 per ton, down 9.45% from last month. Because of the low prices, they were not included in the statistics of lithium concentrate.

Note: The Customs may not be able to accurately record the actual import quantity of spodumene concentrate in that month. This summary is reported only in the direction of import. 

Back to the current spodumene market, research shows that overseas mines have been facing increasing pressure recently because of the relatively high prices of lithium carbonate on the market. In addition, the recent auction prices of spodumene provides a strong support for the overall market prices. In terms of demand, smelters have a lower willingness to transact at current lithium ore prices due to holding a certain amount of lithium ore inventory, while traders have a certain willingness to inquire and receive goods due to the existence of certain profit margins. Therefore, the price of spodumene rose slightly with the transaction.

As of November 26th, the spot average price of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was reported as US$ 813/ton, which was US$ 70/ton higher than the low of US$ 743/ton on October 28th, or 9.42%. 

According to customs data, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China in October 2024 was about 23196 tons, up 43% from last month, and the average import price was about $ 9721 per ton.

Among them, about 17861 tons of lithium carbonate were imported from Chile, an increase of 28% over the previous period, accounting for about 77% of the total import; About 4,791 tons of lithium carbonate were imported from Argentina, an increase of 136% over the previous period, accounting for 21% of the total import. Chile and Argentina are still the main import sources of lithium carbonate in China, maintaining a relatively strong position. In October, the quantity of lithium carbonate delivered from Chile to China continued to rise. After a continuous decline in April, Chile exported about 17000 tons of lithium carbonate to China in October, up 2% from the previous month. Considering the shipping cycle, it is expected that China's lithium carbonate imports will continue to increase in November.

As of November 26th, the spot price of domestically produced battery grade lithium carbonate has fallen to 77600-80200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 78900 yuan/ton, but lower than the low point of 73300 yuan/ton on October 25th. 

Recent research shows that downstream material plants are expected to reduce production and inventory in the future, and reduce inventory at the end of the year. Therefore, the recent buying sentiment has weakened, mainly adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude. There is still a strong upward trend in the upstream lithium salt plant, and the psychological expectation gap between the upstream and downstream is obvious. Generally speaking, the actual trading situation in the market is relatively calm. It is predicted that the spot price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate in the future.