Weekly Evaluation-Lithium Carbonate Continues to Move Downward, Lithium Hydroxide Rises Slightly

This week, due to the downward price of lithium carbonate, the prices of lithium ore remained stable, which was weaker than that of last week. As for spodumene, the supplier continues to maintain a high price attitude, but due to the fluctuation of lithium carbonate prices, the demand side has a general attitude towards receiving spodumene with higher price, which leads to a downward trend. However, due to the increase in the operating rate of lithium salt plants this month and the high demand for spodumene, the overall decline in the price of lithium ore is weaker than that of lithium salt. As for lepidolite, the quotations from small and medium-sized lepidolite suppliers have not changed much since last week. In order to maintain the pace of production, some non-integrated salt plants have a strong demand for corresponding high prices, which further leads to the current price of lepidolite remaining unchanged.

Generally speaking, the price of lithium ore will weaken with the price of lithium carbonate, but the reaction rate is lower than that of lithium carbonate because of the limited liquidity in the market at present. 

1) Lithium carbonate

The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to decline this week, with a drop of around 400 yuan/ton. As can be seen from the current market transaction, near the end of the year, downstream material factories only pays attention to the procurement of necessities due to inventory control, and the overall purchasing mood is relatively cold. The inventory level of traders is relatively high. In order to withdraw funds from the inventory, some traders are using lower price points to promote transactions with downstream enterprises, thus dragging down the center of gravity of spot trading of lithium carbonate. At present, the upstream lithium salt factory is close to the time point of long-term negotiations, and the price increase sentiment is relatively strong. Judging from the demand in December, the decline of lithium carbonate inventory in December will be significantly narrower than that of last month, and it is expected that the inventory level of lithium carbonate will remain stable. Considering the current production situation and psychological expectations of upstream and downstream links, and considering the accumulated inventory level of lithium carbonate, it is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in a range, accompanied by a small downside. 

2) Lithium hydroxide

The price of lithium hydroxide increased slightly this week compared with that of last week. On the supply side, most lithium salt plants maintain the attitude of high price in the early stage, and the willingness to ship individual orders is weak, which is below 70000 yuan/ton; On the demand side, in mid-December, some ternary material factories carried out procurement activities other than the long-term contracts for stocking goods years ago, which led to a certain increase in transaction prices compared with the beginning of December, further supporting the upward trend of market prices. In addition, due to the inconsistency between upstream and downstream psychological discounts, there is no consensus on the discount of one-year new contract in the market at present, and there is a certain upward trend expectation at present.

Overall, with a slight increase in demand for upstream emissions reduction this month, the price of lithium hydroxide will continue to fluctuate within a range. 

3) Lithium iron phosphate

This week, the operating rate of enterprises in Ferrous lithium phosphate remained at a high level, and the Ferrous lithium phosphate market, which was in a high boom track, continued to move forward. In December, orders showed no sign of decline, while the Ferrous lithium phosphate market demonstrated strong demand and stable production. For the production plan in January, if the orders of the downstream core factory remain good, there is a high probability that the leading enterprises in Ferrous lithium phosphate will not have a holiday during the Spring Festival to ensure production. As for the processing fee, the latest bidding news of Ferrous lithium phosphate has not been disclosed yet. In 2024, the anode factory suffered a lot of loss, which indicated a strong demand for the increase of processing fees in 2025. 

4) Cobalt salts (cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride)

This week, the price of cobalt intermediate products remained stable. From the supply side, at present, the port arrival volume continues and the social supply is sufficient. From the downstream demand side, due to the low profits of cobalt smelters, cobalt salts are often used as substitutes, which leads to a decline in demand for cobalt raw material. Based on the overall market situation, the short-term market bearish outlook remains unchanged. In the case of oversupply, spot prices may still have the possibility of going down.