Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure: the end of the year-end peak season may come to an end, market trend analysis

Under the tide of global emerging industries such as hydrogen energy and lithium industries, lithium carbonate, as an important raw material for key materials such as electric vehicles and batteries, has attracted wide attention of investors due to its recent drastic market fluctuations. According to the analysis of Jianxin Futures, the market consumption of lithium carbonate is about to spend the year-end peak season, the price may face greater pressure in the short term. Let's make an in-depth analysis of the reasons behind this phenomenon and the market expectation in the future together.

1) Overview: current situation of lithium carbonate

Recently, the market trend of the lithium carbonate is worrying, its price continued to fall, the total position decreases by 2138 lots, and the spread of the 05-01 contract on the disk slightly expanded, which shows the differences of all parties in the market on the future price. Against this context, although spot prices dropped slightly, especially electric carbon and industrial carbon dropped by 50 yuan, the market as a whole remained weak.

At present, the upstream lithium salt producers are facing a relatively low inventory levels, and the market seems to have a certain price-holding sentiment. On the other hand, traders' selling attitude towards high-quality lithium carbonate has provided some support for the price. Although the short-term market demand has picked up, downstream material manufacturers have not significantly cut orders, but this situation is not enough to stop the price of lithium carbonate from falling.

Approaching the end of the year will increase the demand for replenishment of consumables such as batteries, but with the end of the peak season, the expansion of market consumption demand may be slow. In this case, the price trend in the future indicates that the downturn of lithium carbonate is inevitable. 

2) Industry news: negative news again

In terms of industry dynamics, on December 17, foreign media reported that Arcadium Lithium, one of the world's largest mining companies, is facing a legal challenge due to a lawsuit filed by shareholders alleging misrepresentation and negligence in the acquisition process. This news undoubtedly casts a shadow over the market, and shareholders' confidence in the company being questioned, which may also affect future investment flow.

On the same day, the CEO of BHP Billiton Group also said that in the face of a series of tariffs and trade policies that may be implemented by the new US government, the global mining market is faced with uncertainties such as trade liquidity and industrial policies, and then it will intensify. China, in particular, as the largest single buyer, may make the global market more competitive in the future.

3) Cost and production: the dilemma of spodumene

Market data shows that the cost of purchasing spodumene has plummeted to $ 3,400 per ton. Although the loss has increased, it does not seem to affect production at present. It is worth noting that the output of lithium carbonate is still rising. With the gradual flattening of downstream consumption and the demand for hoarding goods at the end of the year, the oversupply of lithium carbonate may intensify in the next few months, which will also provide a basis for the downward prices.

4) Summary: outlook on the market

Looking forward to the future, although the spot market for lithium carbonate is still supported, the overall market supply and demand will change with the end of year-end consumption. In the short term, the probability of prices operation under pressure is high. Considering the overall trend of the industry and changes in market sentiment, investors should be cautious.

As the promotion of a new round of market dynamics, continuous observation and analysis on lithium carbonate industry will be crucial. In the future, how to find investment opportunities in the unpredictable market environment will test the wisdom and judgment of each participant.

Faced with the drastic fluctuation of lithium carbonate market, industry practitioners and investors should not forget the nature of the industry, and maintain a keen insight and moderate calm, so as to be invincible in this stormy market game.