Inventory streak! Lithium carbonate price inflection point coming?

Inventory streak! Lithium carbonate price inflection point coming?

Recently, lithium carbonate inventory has changed the previous continuous de-escalation trend and has been two consecutive weeks of modest recovery. According to SMM data, as of the week of December 20, the social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 89 tons to 108,200 tons compared with the previous week. Specifically, from all aspects, intermediate traders speed up shipments and most of the inventory is transferred. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 33,000 tons; The inventory of smelters increased by 600 tons to 37,000 tons.

Zhang Weixin, an analyst at CITIC Futures, said that the continuous slight increase in inventories indicates that the fundamentals of lithium carbonate have recovered from the tight situation in September-November to the basic balance. From the point of view of the movement of production and inventory, the main driver of the return of fundamentals to balance is the growth of production, rather than a fall in demand. ' for lithium carbonate prices, the re-accumulation of inventory brings pressure, but demand remains high, supporting the 'off-season' .'Zhang Weixin said. 

' inventories has stabilized for two weeks in a row, reflecting that the market supply and demand structure has entered a short-term balance. "Guo Xin Futures analyst Gu Fengda said that from the supply side, the output of lithium carbonate continued to pick up in November and December, especially the high operating rate of spodumene and lepidolite brought about a significant increase, which kept the supply running at a high level. From the demand side, although demand is still stronger than the same period of last years, the release speed has slowed down, so the inventory has accumulated slightly again.

From the perspective of the plate, the price of lithium carbonate has maintained a volatile operation in the near future. On December 24,2505 contract, the main force of lithium carbonate futures, rose slightly by 0.93% to 78200 yuan/ton.

Zhang Weixin believes that there is no obvious positive drive in the lithium carbonate market at present, and the price has rebounded slightly or the market fluctuates normally. On the one hand, although the weekly production continued to increase, the accumulation of the magnitude did not appear to expand significantly, meaning that demand is still maintained at a high level. The 'off-season 'further strengthened. On the other hand, from the perspective of price level, the main contract of lithium carbonate has fallen below the central level since August this year, and some contract are close to the previous low. In this context, the momentum of continued decline has been weakened. 

According to Gu Fengda, the price of lithium carbonate has rebounded slightly recently, which is mainly driven by the demand side's exceeding expectations and market sentiment. ' although November and December are the traditional off-seasons, due to the rush to install new energy vehicle at the end of the year and the rush to export energy storage, downstream dispatching shows the characteristics of 'off-season', especially the strong demand of power battery and energy storage industry supports the market. "Gu Fengda said that as the price gradually hit the bottom range of market expectations, some downstream enterprises began to purchase ahead of time, and trade activity increased, which also helped to promote the short-term repair of prices.

From a fundamental point of view, the overall supply is relatively loose at present, and the short-term output is expected to rise steadily, but the marginal increment in supply has gradually slowed down, and the weekly data has remained at a small increment in recent weeks. According to SMM data, the output of lithium carbonate in November was 64,140 tons, an increase of 4,475 tons over the previous year and a year-on-year increase of 48.8%. Among them, the output of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 46,360 tons, an increase of 5,455 tons or 65.8%; It produced 17,780 tons of industrial-grade lithium carbonate, a year-on-year decrease of 980 tons and an increase of 17.5%. In the week ending December 20th, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 16,340 tons, an increase of 198 tons over the same period of last year. The output of lithium carbonate is expected to be 69,570 tons in December.

Demand, relatively basic feedback, the follow-up or need to observe the expected changes in demand. December scheduling a slight decline in demand to continue to significantly boost expectations is limited.

Looking forward to the future market, Wu Jiang, an analyst of SDIC Futures, believes that lithium carbonate is in a state of balance between supply and demand in December, the domestic lithium production has been lifted, and the downstream performance is also relatively prosperous, and the operating rate of anode material enterprises has remained at a high level. For the production plan in January next year, if the order of the downstream core factory is still good, the head of lithium iron phosphate enterprises during the Spring Festival will probably not go on holiday. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate is still strongly supported at 70,000 ~ 75,000 yuan/ton, and the market outlook is likely to be strong oscillation.

Although the inventory accumulation in the recent week is not large, it does verify that the relationship between supply and demand of lithium carbonate has weakened marginally, and the warehouse receipts continue to increase, which also shows that the fundamentals are generally loose. "overall, prices is expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend." Zhang Weixin believes that with the approach of the Spring Festival, the demand for lithium carbonate is likely to fall from the high level, and the fundamentals are expected to be further relaxed. After the Spring Festival, we need to consider the risk of demand overdraft brought about by the 'slow peak season'. If the peak demand season in March fails, the price of lithium carbonate may fall further.