‘Cobalt’ has been falling! How did demand fare at the end of the year?

‘Cobalt’ has been falling! How did demand fare at the end of the year?

Compared with last week, the decline in the price of cobalt products this week was slightly narrower than that of the previous week. Previously, due to the decline in the price of raw material and weak demand, the spot price of cobaltosic oxide was depressed, and this week was temporarily stable. However, the electrolytic cobalt and cobalt salts are still unable to get rid of the situation of the 'endless fall '. SMM sorted out the price changes of cobalt products this week, as shown below.

Electrolytic cobalt: According to the spot quotation of SMM, the spot price of electrolytic cobalt this week dropped by 2500 yuan/ton on December 25th. After the temporary stabilization, as of December 27th, the spot price of electrolytic cobalt was temporarily maintained at 160,000-185,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 172,500 yuan/ton, down 1.43% from December 20th.

According to SMM research, from the supply side, this week, the mainstream electrolytic cobalt smelters maintain the operating rate, and the overall spot supply is sufficient; In terms of demand, this week's overseas holiday coincides with the Christmas holidays, and the overseas demand is cold; Some sporadic stocks previously existed in China, and the demand has weakened near the end of the year. Judging from the overall situation of the market, the market as a whole is relatively cold, with few inquiries and transactions, and the spot price of electrolytic cobalt is under pressure. It is expected that the short-term supply and demand pattern of cobalt will be maintained as the market demand for stocking basically ends, due to the weak spot prices.

Cobalt salt (cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride): cobalt sulfate. According to SMM spot quotation, this week's spot quotation of cobalt sulfate dropped by 50/tonne yuan/ton on December 23 and December 27, respectively. By December 27, the spot quotation of cobalt sulfate dropped to 26,300 ~ 27,100 yuan/ton, and the average quotation price was 26,700/tonne yuan/ton, down 0.37% compared with December 20.

As for cobalt chloride, according to SMM spot quotation, this week's spot quotation of cobalt chloride recorded a total decline of three trading days. As of December 27, the spot quotation of cobalt chloride dropped to 32,500-33,100 yuan per ton, with an average price of 32,800 yuan per ton, down 0.46% from December 20th. 

According to SMM research, the reason for the continuous decline in the price of cobalt salts is mainly related to the low price of cobalt salts sold by individual cobalt salt factories. According to SMM, near the end of the year, there are still some cobalt salt factories in the market selling at a price lower than the market price due to factors such as capital return, thus lowering the spot price. According to SMM research, supply and demand show that the operating rate of the supplier of cobalt salt smelter is still at a low level; On the demand side, the market only maintained the demand, and the overall demand was weak. It was difficult for the downstream to accept the high price of cobalt salt, and the transaction was a little cold during the week. It is expected that next week, the cobalt salt market supply and demand pattern will be difficult to change, the cobalt salt spot price will be difficult to stabilize, or there will still be a certain downward space.

Cobalt tetroxide: According to the spot quotation of SMM, the quotation of Cobalt tetroxide is temporarily stable this Thursday. As of December 27, the spot quotation of Cobalt tetroxide is stable at 111,000 ~ 114,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 112,500 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that on December 20th. 

Fundamentally speaking, on the supply side, the operating rate of the Cobalt Trioxide Smelter has declined; From the demand side, only some enterprises have sporadic new orders, and the demand performance of lithium cobaltate market is relatively dull, and most of them are just replenishment. The cobaltosic oxide market as a whole is still weak in supply and demand. It is expected that next week, some enterprises may choose to sell their products at a reduced price for the sake of clearing inventory at the end of the year. Coupled with the continuous decline in the price of raw cobalt salt, the cost support of cobaltous oxide has also weakened. Its spot prices may still drop slightly.

In terms of policy, on December 24th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued the "Industrial Standard Conditions for Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles (2024 Edition)". It is mentioned that it is necessary to actively carry out the research and development and application of recycling technology, equipment and processes such as anode and cathode materials, separators and electrolytes, and strive to improve the recycling level of waste power batteries to ensure that the main valuable metals are effectively extracted and recycled through smelting or material repair. Among them, the recovery rate of lithium during smelting is not less than 90%, the recovery rate of nickel, cobalt and manganese is not less than 98%, and the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product of lithium carbonate is not more than 2,200 kg standard coal/ton.