International and ASX Lithium Industry Analysis

International and ASX Lithium Industry Analysis

The price of lithium ore has plummeted by about 80% since its peak in 2022, seriously affecting the ASX lithium stock.

·Key lithium futures contracts rebounded significantly on Monday due to incentive measures in the Chinese electric vehicle market and potential increased regulation of some Chinese manufacturers.

·This week, ASX lithium stocks rebounded, but most are still in a long-term downward trend, so buying at this time may be too early.

·Today's chart observation reanalyzed the lithium carbonate futures reported on Monday evening. The unexpected technological trend requires a re examination of the ASX lithium industry.

Market analysis:

The recent developments suggest a possible reason for Monday's rebound. According to reports, China has introduced incentive measures to encourage consumers to upgrade to newer, lower emission vehicles, and there are reports that Chinese aluminum phosphate producers may face more inspections and environmental regulations. These factors may increase demand and raise the production cost curve, affecting supply and potentially driving up lithium prices.

However, despite the initial rebound, Tuesday's trading showed a significant decline, almost erasing Monday's gains and establishing new supply resistance points.

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International Lithium Stock Review:

1. Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB)

Trend: Short term: ➡️,  long-term: ⬇️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬜

Support/Resistance: 106.69/133.72

Comment: The range of dynamic supply fluctuates in the long-term downward trend. The recent positive indicators were quickly negated by Tuesday's performance, indicating that volatility and supply side control are still ongoing.

2. Arcadium Lithium (NYSE: ALTM)

Trend: Short term: ➡️,  Long term: N/A

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬜

Support/Resistance: 3.67/4.55

Comment: There are clear signs of short-term demand, and an increase in trading volume indicates interest. However, the sustainability of the upward trend is still uncertain.

3. Lithium Americas Corp (NYSE: LAC)

Trend: Short term: ⬇️,  long-term: ⬇️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬛

Comment: Deeply trapped in a downward trend, there was a significant short jump and low opening in April. Disadvantageous to trend followers.

4. Sociedad Quimica y Minera (NYSE: SQM)

Trend: Short term: ➡️,  long-term: ⬇️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬛⬜

O Support/Resistance: 42.13/51.90

Comment: oscillating in a long-term downward trend. The demand side needs to demonstrate stronger strength to overcome resistance.

5. Tianqi Lithium Corporation (SZSE: 002466)

Trend: Short term: ⬇️,  long-term: ⬇️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬛

Comment: Lack of any positive indicators, deeply trapped in a downward trend.

Review of Australian Lithium Stocks:

1. IGO (ASX: IGO)

Trend: Short term: ➡️,  long-term: ⬇️

Price trend: ⬅️➡️,  Candle chart: ⬛⬜

O Support/Resistance: 6.76/8.47

Comment: There is a range of fluctuations and potential supply pressure. The demand side needs to demonstrate more strength to challenge key resistance levels.

2. Latin Resources Ltd (ASX: LRS)

Trend: Short term: ⬆️,  long-term: ➡️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬜

O Support/Resistance: 0.17/0.235

Comment: The demand side has shown effort, but faces strong resistance at 0.235. A decisive breakthrough is needed to maintain the upward trend.

3. Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR)

Trend: Short term: ➡️,  long-term: ⬇️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬛⬜

O Support/Resistance: 1.07/1.36

Comment: Struggling with a downward trend, significant demand side action is needed to reverse it.

4. Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN)

Trend: Short term: ⬆️,  long-term: ➡️

Price trend: ⬅️➡️,  Candle chart: ⬜

Support/Resistance: 66.31/73.16

Comment: A new long-term upward trend may be forming, but it is facing resistance at 73.16.

5. Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS)

Trend: Short term: ➡️,  long-term: ⬇️

Price trend: ⬅️➡️,  Candle chart: ⬛⬜

O Support/Resistance: 3.70/4.27

Comment: Mixed signal, potential supply pressure. Strong demand driven efforts are needed to overcome resistance.

6. Wildcat Resources (ASX: WC8)

Trend: Short term: ⬇️,  long-term: ➡️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬛

O Support/Resistance: 0.45/0.61

Comment: Significant supply side control requires sustained demand side recovery.

7. Winsome Resources (ASX: WR1)

Trend: Short term: ⬆️,  long-term: ➡️

Price trend: Picture, candle chart: ⬜

O Support/Resistance: 1.22/1.49

Comment: Strong demand side control, if it can break through the resistance level of 1.49, may further increase.

Worth noting stocks:

Other stocks that did not show significant signs of demand: Atlantic Lithium (ASX: A11), Argosy Minerals (ASX: AGY), Arizona Lithium (ASX: AZL), Core Lithium (ASX: CXO), Delta Lithium (ASX: DLI), Global Lithium Resources (ASX: GL1), Galan Lithium (ASX: GLN), Lake Resources (ASX: LKE), Loyal Lithium (ASX: LLI), Piedmont Lithium (ASX: LLI) PLL, Matrix Battery Metals (ASX: PMT), Sayona Mining (ASX: SYA).

Potential follow list:

ODevelop Global (ASX: DVP): fluctuates in the range below 2.59, and it is worth paying attention if it can close above this level and break through the long-term downward band.

OIoneer (ASX: INR): The short-term upward trend is barely maintained, and if it can close above 0.23, it can be confirmed that the demand side is controlling.

OLithium Energy (ASX: LEL): fluctuates below 0.62, and it would be interesting if it could close above this level and break through the long-term downward band.

OProspect Resources (ASX: PSC): Strong demand side signs may be shifting towards copper mines.

OVulcan Energy (ASX: VUL): A new long-term upward trend may be forming, and if it can close above 3.64, it may be decisive.

Conclusion:

Despite recent developments leading to some short-term rebounds, most lithium stocks, whether listed on the international market or ASX, are still in a long-term downward trend. There are signs of demand in certain areas, but caution is advised before seeing more consistent trend reversal indicators. Stay vigilant, pay attention to changes in demand and supply dynamics, and be prepared to adjust positions as new trends develop.

Trend (Short term trend band: 21&34 index moving average | Long term trend band: 144&233 index moving average)

⬆️ =  An upward trend with a rising trend indicates a higher probability of the market being in a state of oversupply

⬇️ =  A downward trend with a downward trend indicates a higher probability of the market being in a state of supply shortage

➡️ =  No trend, the trend band tends to flatten, indicating a higher probability of the market being in equilibrium

Price Action