Lithium carbonate spot prices remain stable, while downstream demand is weak

Lithium carbonate spot prices remain stable, while downstream demand is weak. On June 28th, it fell 200 yuan to 91500 yuan/ton, hitting a new low in over 2 years.

The spot price of lithium acid remains stable. The market price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate (mainly 99.0%) is concentrated between 85000 to 87000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 86500 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the previous working day; The market price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is concentrated between 8700-92000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 89500 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the previous working day.

Today, the price of lithium carbonate futures market fell first and then rose. As the position limit of the 07 contract approached, the competition between the long and short sides in the futures market became increasingly fierce, and the position volume has significantly decreased to below 20000 hands. The spot market closely follows the fluctuation trend of futures contracts, with new commodity prices generally discounted by about 1000 yuan on the basis of the 08 contract, while old commodity prices remain unchanged from the 07 contract. A large number of small brand electric carbon products are difficult to pass downstream indicators and can only wait for futures delivery. Recently, some well-known brand sources have begun to appear in the market. The transaction activity in the lithium carbonate market has rebounded this week. Large downstream manufacturers generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with relatively low demand for external procurement; Small manufacturers, on the other hand, adjust their prices during the low point of the week and replenish their products as needed. The slow decline in lithium ore prices has provided some support for the price of lithium carbonate. It is difficult to find suitable price mines, and some outsourcing enterprises have inverted production costs.

Market forecast: The situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to reverse in the short term. Some lithium salt factories have released maintenance plans, and some manufacturers with high costs have reduced production, but the supply of lithium carbonate is still sufficient in recent months. On the other hand, the weak trend of downstream demand is difficult to fundamentally improve in the short term, and it is difficult for the demand side to provide effective support. At present, the spot market price of lithium carbonate is greatly affected by futures. Recently, there have been restrictions on the 07 contract, and futures prices have fluctuated sharply. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate within the range of 85000 to 92000 yuan/ton.

According to the latest quotation from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on June 28th, lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade/domestic) fell by 180.0 yuan to 91500 yuan/ton, hitting a new low in over 2 years. It has fallen by 3300.0 yuan in the past 5 days and 15510.0 yuan in the past 30 days; Lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery grade coarse particles/domestically produced) fell by 200.0 yuan to 82900 yuan/ton, reaching a new low in over 3 years. It has been down for 28 consecutive days, with a cumulative drop of 1680.0 yuan in the past 5 days and 15250.0 yuan in the past 30 days.

Today's spodumene (spot in China)

Spodumene 5-5.5%: 7345-8550, average price 7947.5, down 12.5 yuan/ton

Spodumene 4-5%: 5240-7345, average price 6292.5, down 12.5 yuan/ton

Spodumene 3-4%: 3290-5240, average price 4265, down 30%