Analysis of the Current Status and Future Trends of the Lithium Battery Industry!
Jul,29,24
Against the backdrop of the rapid development of industries such as electric vehicles, electric light vehicles, power tools, consumer electronics,
and new energy storage, the comprehensive advantages of lithium batteries are in line with the increasing demand for large capacity, high power, long service life,
and environmental protection in downstream fields, and have broad market application prospects.
1. Introduction to lithium batteries
Lithium ion battery, also known as lithium-ion battery,
is a type of secondary battery that relies on the movement of lithium ions (Li+) between the positive and negative electrodes to achieve the purpose of charging and discharging.
Compared with other major secondary batteries, lithium batteries have obvious advantages such as high energy density, high discharge power, long cycle life, no memory effect, and green environmental protection.
The specific situation is as follows:
2. The Development History of Lithium Battery Industry
① Development history of global lithium battery industry
In the early 1990s, the lithium battery developed by Sony Corporation in Japan was first applied to portable electronic products,
marking the initial exploration of commercial applications of lithium batteries worldwide;
In the early 21st century, with the popularization of consumer electronic products such as smartphones, MP3 players, and tablets, as well as the improvement of lithium battery production technology,
the shipment volume of lithium batteries grew rapidly, and the global lithium battery industry entered a period of rapid development.
In recent years, driven by fields such as new energy vehicles, electric light vehicles, electric tools, and new energy storage, the global market space for lithium batteries has maintained a rapid growth trend.
② The Development History of China's Lithium Battery Industry
The lithium battery industry in China started relatively late.
Since the first introduction of lithium battery related technology in 1998, China's lithium battery industry has gone through a 24 year development process.
With the active guidance of national industrial policies and the independent innovation of excellent domestic enterprises,
a relatively complete industrial chain and a globally leading market size have been formed.
A number of leading lithium battery enterprises with international competitiveness and leadership have emerged, forming a parallel development pattern with early starting Japanese and Korean enterprises.
3. The current situation and future trends of the lithium battery industry
According to terminal applications, the downstream of lithium batteries can be mainly divided into three major fields: power, consumption, and energy storage.
Among them, the main application fields of power lithium batteries are electric vehicles, electric light vehicles, electric tools, etc.,
which are the main application scenarios of current lithium batteries (automotive power batteries are also known as "large power batteries",
and power batteries for electric light vehicles/electric tools are also known as "small power batteries");
Consumer lithium batteries are mainly used in mobile phones, laptops, and recently emerging consumer electronics products such as Bluetooth earphones and wearable devices,
making them an important application area for lithium batteries;
Energy storage lithium batteries mainly provide support for the energy storage needs of communication base stations, user side peak shaving and valley filling, off grid power stations, microgrids, rail transit, etc.
It is a rapidly developing emerging field and a direction strongly supported by national policies in recent years.
Benefiting from the rapid development of the three major sub sectors of power, consumption, and energy storage, the lithium battery industry will continue to maintain a trend of rapid growth.
The development overview and specific future trends of each sub sector are as follows:
The market prospect of power lithium batteries is broad
Power lithium batteries are currently the most important application market for lithium batteries, mainly used in three fields: new energy vehicles, electric light vehicles, and electric tools.
On the policy side, in the macro context of addressing climate change and promoting green development,
new energy vehicles have become a recognized mainstream development direction due to their obvious advantages in energy efficiency, environmental protection, and intelligence.
In October 2020, China issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)",
which strongly supports the development of the new energy vehicle industry and proposes that by 2025,
the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles,
and by 2035, pure new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles, achieving a grand vision of comprehensive electrification of public sector vehicles.
On the technical side, after years of policy encouragement and enterprise research and development innovation,
the technological level of domestic power battery enterprises has continuously improved, laying a foundation for the long-term development of China's lithium battery market for new energy vehicles.
In terms of international competitiveness, well-known companies such as CATL and BYD have a market share that ranks among the top in the world, and are on par with Japanese and Korean companies;
In terms of continuous innovation, domestic lithium battery companies have successively launched new technologies such as CTP, blade batteries, JTM, etc., and their technological level continues to improve.
On the market side, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 was 6.8866 million units, a year-on-year increase of 95.61%.
The annual penetration rate increased from 13.4% in 2021 to 25.6%,
achieving the goal of 20% penetration rate of new energy
vehicle sales by 2025 in the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" ahead of schedule, and moving towards the vision of "pure electric vehicles becoming the mainstream of new
sales vehicles and comprehensive electrification of public sector vehicles" by 2035.
Consumption of lithium batteries will steadily increase
Consumer electronics products mainly include smartphones, laptops, tablets, and smart hardware.
With the rapid development of integrated circuits and Internet of Things technology, the functions of consumer electronic products are becoming increasingly powerful,
and their application scenarios are constantly expanding, gradually becoming an indispensable necessity for people's daily life, office, and entertainment.
According to IDC data, from 2009 to 2019, the global consumer electronics industry market size rapidly increased from $245 billion to $715 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3%.
Affected by factors such as the trend of 5G smartphone replacement,
the normalization of online learning and remote work demand for laptops, and the continuous launch of emerging intelligent hardware devices,
it is expected that the consumer electronics market will continue to maintain steady growth in the future, with a market size of $939 billion by 2025.
With the rapid development of the consumer electronics industry, the shipment volume of consumer lithium batteries has grown rapidly.
According to data from China Energy Storage Network, the production of consumer lithium batteries in China reached 72GWh in 2021, achieving a year-on-year increase of 18%.
In the future, the demand for lightweight and high-performance consumer electronic products will continue to increase,
which will put forward new requirements for the battery life and charging speed of consumer lithium batteries.
GGII expects that the demand for consumer lithium batteries will continue to grow, with an annual growth rate of 5% -10%.
The development potential of the energy storage lithium battery market is enormous
The development potential of the energy storage lithium battery industry is enormous, but due to technological, policy, and cost reasons, China's energy storage lithium battery market started relatively late.
At present, China's energy storage lithium batteries are mainly used in communication base stations, user side peak shaving and valley filling, off grid power stations, microgrids, rail transit, etc.
Some of them are also exported to Southeast Asia, Europe, America, Australia and other markets.
The new energy storage industry, as one of the key supports for carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the energy sector, is a direction strongly supported by the country.
In August 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage",
which clearly stated the main goal of achieving a new energy storage installed capacity of over 30 million kilowatts by 2025. By 2030, achieve comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage.
Among them, the above opinions clearly require promoting the continuous cost reduction and commercial scale application of relatively mature new energy storage technologies such as lithium batteries.
Therefore, with the implementation of relevant supporting policies, the new energy storage related lithium battery industry chain will usher in significant market opportunities.
In 2022, the shipment volume of China's energy storage battery market has grown rapidly from 16.2 GWh in 2020 to 130 GWh, with a compound annual growth rate of 183.28%.
Among them, electric energy storage, household energy storage, and portable energy storage have increased by 216.2%, 354.5%, and 207.7% respectively year-on-year.
In the future, with the implementation of relevant supporting policies,
coupled with factors such as the integration of new energy into the grid,
the increasing demand for new energy consumption in the power generation side, and the landing of 5G commercial applications, China's energy storage lithium battery market will further expand.
4. The competitive landscape of the lithium battery industry
① The overall industry competition pattern of cylindrical lithium battery manufacturers
According to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Cylindrical Lithium ion Battery Industry (2022)" released by EVTank,
the concentration of the global cylindrical lithium battery industry is relatively high, with the top 9 cylindrical lithium battery manufacturers accounting for about two-thirds of the market share.
The top ranked manufacturers are Panasonic Group, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, EVE Energy, Tianpeng Power, BAK Battery, Sunpower, Lishen Battery, and Highstar.
② Industry competition pattern of lithium battery manufacturers in various segmented application fields
From the perspective of regional distribution, after years of policy encouragement, China's lithium battery industry has developed rapidly.
Major foreign lithium battery manufacturers such as Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI have established production bases in China.
Currently, China has become one of the world's most important lithium battery production areas.
From the perspective of segmented markets, there are differences in the leading enterprises in the application fields of power lithium batteries, consumer lithium batteries, and energy storage lithium batteries,
but overall they almost all show an oligopoly pattern. The specific competitive landscape of each segmented field is as follows:
Competitive landscape of power lithium batteries
a. In the field of automotive power batteries
In the field of automotive power lithium batteries, domestic enterprises are in a relatively leading position, and an oligopoly pattern of leading enterprises in China, Japan, and South Korea has basically formed.
According to statistics, in 2021, Chinese companies CATL, South Korean company LG Chem, Japanese company Panasonic, Chinese company BYD,
and South Korean company SKI respectively ranked among the top five in terms of installed power battery capacity.
The combined market share of the top five companies is about 80%, forming a relatively stable oligopoly pattern.
b. Electric light vehicle power lithium battery field
In terms of lithium-ion batteries for electric light vehicles (mainly electric two wheelers), EVTank data shows that the production of lithium-ion two wheelers in 2021 was 13.17 million units,
with an overall penetration rate of 24.2%, driving the shipment of lithium-ion batteries for electric two wheelers to 13.1 GWh.
From the perspective of competitive landscape, according to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Electric Two Wheel Vehicle Industry (2022)" released by EVTank,
the main domestic suppliers of lithium batteries for electric two wheel vehicles in 2021 are Xingheng Power, Tianneng Shares, Xinneng Anhe, and Chaowei Battery,
with a total share of over 70%. In addition, competitors in this industry include CATL, Far East Corporation, Hengdian East Magnetic, BYD Battery, EVE Energy, Penghui Energy, Lishen Battery, etc.
c. Power lithium battery field for electric tools
In terms of lithium batteries for electric tools, according to data from EVTank and Ive Economic Research Institute,
the global shipment volume and market size of electric tools are expected to be 510 million units and 57.19 billion US dollars respectively in 2022. It is expected that by 2026,
the global shipment volume of electric tools will exceed 700 million units, and the market size will exceed 80 billion US dollars.
Driven by the growth of the global electric tool market, it is expected that the global demand for lithium batteries in electric tools will exceed 4 billion by 2026.
From the perspective of competitive landscape, international lithium battery manufacturers started early and occupied a large market space: in 2017, Samsung SDI, LG Chem,
and Murata accounted for about 75% of the market share in the field of electric tool batteries.
Since 2018, against the backdrop of continuous breakthroughs in domestic high rate lithium battery technology and international lithium battery manufacturers focusing on the field of automotive power batteries,
multiple domestic lithium battery suppliers such as EVE Energy, Lishen Battery, BAK Battery,
and Tianpeng Power have respectively passed certifications from one or more well-known power tool manufacturers such as TTI, Bosch,
Stanley Best, and Baoshide, entering the supply chain of international power tool manufacturers and gradually replacing the share of foreign battery manufacturers.
According to EVTank data, in terms of the penetration rate of lithium-ion two wheeled vehicles in 2021,
the "new national standard" and the entry of well-known enterprises will be long-term drivers to accelerate the replacement of lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries.
5. Characteristics of lithium battery industry
① The safety issues of lithium batteries urgently need to be addressed
Against the backdrop of the trend of new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles, lithium batteries are currently the main power batteries used in electric vehicles due to their high energy density,
high discharge power, and long cycle life.
However, in recent years, safety accidents caused by thermal runaway of lithium batteries have occasionally occurred, posing a threat to consumers' lives and property safety.
In order to address the safety issues of lithium batteries and promote the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles in China,
the country has released the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles".
This standard has been implemented since 2021 and requires lithium batteries to undergo rigorous safety testing before leaving the factory,
including 6 safety tests for the battery cell and 15 safety tests for the battery system, to ensure the safe use of lithium batteries.
With the implementation of mandatory standards, the safety threshold for lithium batteries has significantly increased,
and the degree of protection of battery safety will be increasingly valued by production enterprises, end users, and government regulatory departments.
How lithium battery companies can minimize the safety issues of lithium batteries is a challenge faced by lithium batteries and related industries.
② Multiple technological routes coexist for lithium batteries
In recent years, the commercial application of lithium batteries has developed rapidly.
In response to the increasing demand for lithium batteries in end use markets such as new energy vehicles,
emerging technologies for lithium batteries continue to emerge,
presenting a situation where multiple technological routes coexist.
At present, the technological differences in lithium batteries mainly manifest in the positive electrode material system and packaging form.
One is that there are differences in the technology routes of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries.
The positive electrode material is an important component of lithium batteries, and its characteristics have a significant impact on the energy density, cycle life, safety performance, etc.
The technical routes mainly include ternary materials, lithium manganese oxide, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, etc.
Precision structural components and materials of batteries can be widely used as packaging or conductive materials for lithium batteries due to their strong versatility,
and are generally not affected by the technology route of positive electrode materials.
The second difference is the packaging form of lithium batteries. The packaging form refers to the packaging structure of a single lithium battery,
and different packaging forms require different manufacturing processes and correspond to different forms of battery precision structural components.
At present, the packaging technology route for lithium batteries mainly includes three forms: cylindrical, square, and soft pack.
At present, cylindrical, square, and soft pack lithium batteries each have their own advantages and disadvantages,
presenting a competitive landscape of "three parts of the world" in the global market, and all have significant market development space.
In September 2020, Tesla launched a 46800 large cylindrical battery solution.
Compared with traditional small cylindrical batteries,
large cylindrical battery technology can reduce the number of batteries and corresponding structural components in the battery pack, improve energy density, simplify battery management system requirements,
and have the disadvantage of higher requirements than square batteries.
From the current progress, Tesla has achieved mass production of 4680 large cylindrical batteries in 2022,
with a weekly production capacity of 868000 units, corresponding to the demand for approximately 1000 Model Y.
In September 2022, BMW Group announced the use of 46 series cylindrical battery cells in its new models starting from 2025,
and locked in the first batch of partners as CATL and EVE Energy.
Other well-known battery manufacturers at home and abroad are also steadily advancing the layout of 4680 large cylindrical batteries.
Against the backdrop of the rapid development of industries such as electric vehicles, electric light vehicles, power tools, consumer electronics, and new energy storage,
the comprehensive advantages of lithium batteries are in line with the increasing demand for large capacity, high power, long service life,
and environmental protection in downstream fields, and have broad market application prospects.
1. Introduction to lithium batteries
Lithium ion battery, also known as lithium-ion battery,
is a type of secondary battery that relies on the movement of lithium ions (Li+) between the positive and negative electrodes to achieve the purpose of charging and discharging.
Compared with other major secondary batteries, lithium batteries have obvious advantages such as high energy density, high discharge power, long cycle life, no memory effect, and green environmental protection.
The specific situation is as follows:
2. The Development History of Lithium Battery Industry
① Development history of global lithium battery industry
In the early 1990s, the lithium battery developed by Sony Corporation in Japan was first applied to portable electronic products,
marking the initial exploration of commercial applications of lithium batteries worldwide;
In the early 21st century, with the popularization of consumer electronic products such as smartphones, MP3 players, and tablets, as well as the improvement of lithium battery production technology,
the shipment volume of lithium batteries grew rapidly, and the global lithium battery industry entered a period of rapid development.
In recent years, driven by fields such as new energy vehicles, electric light vehicles, electric tools, and new energy storage, the global market space for lithium batteries has maintained a rapid growth trend.
② The Development History of China's Lithium Battery Industry
The lithium battery industry in China started relatively late.
Since the first introduction of lithium battery related technology in 1998, China's lithium battery industry has gone through a 24 year development process.
With the active guidance of national industrial policies and the independent innovation of excellent domestic enterprises,
a relatively complete industrial chain and a globally leading market size have been formed.
A number of leading lithium battery enterprises with international competitiveness and leadership have emerged, forming a parallel development pattern with early starting Japanese and Korean enterprises.
3. The current situation and future trends of the lithium battery industry
According to terminal applications, the downstream of lithium batteries can be mainly divided into three major fields: power, consumption, and energy storage.
Among them, the main application fields of power lithium batteries are electric vehicles, electric light vehicles, electric tools, etc.,
which are the main application scenarios of current lithium batteries (automotive power batteries are also known as "large power batteries",
and power batteries for electric light vehicles/electric tools are also known as "small power batteries");
Consumer lithium batteries are mainly used in mobile phones,
laptops, and recently emerging consumer electronics products such as Bluetooth earphones and wearable devices, making them an important application area for lithium batteries;
Energy storage lithium batteries mainly provide support for the energy storage needs of communication base stations,
user side peak shaving and valley filling, off grid power stations, microgrids, rail transit, etc.
It is a rapidly developing emerging field and a direction strongly supported by national policies in recent years.
Benefiting from the rapid development of the three major sub sectors of power, consumption, and energy storage, the lithium battery industry will continue to maintain a trend of rapid growth.
The development overview and specific future trends of each sub sector are as follows:
The market prospect of power lithium batteries is broad
Power lithium batteries are currently the most important application market for lithium batteries, mainly used in three fields: new energy vehicles, electric light vehicles, and electric tools.
On the policy side, in the macro context of addressing climate change and promoting green development,
new energy vehicles have become a recognized mainstream development direction due to their obvious advantages in energy efficiency, environmental protection, and intelligence.
In October 2020, China issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)",
which strongly supports the development of the new energy vehicle industry and proposes that by 2025,
the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles, and by 2035,
pure new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles, achieving a grand vision of comprehensive electrification of public sector vehicles.
On the technical side, after years of policy encouragement and enterprise research and development innovation,
the technological level of domestic power battery enterprises has continuously improved, laying a foundation for the long-term development of China's lithium battery market for new energy vehicles.
In terms of international competitiveness, well-known companies such as CATL and BYD have a market share that ranks among the top in the world, and are on par with Japanese and Korean companies;
In terms of continuous innovation, domestic lithium battery companies have successively launched new technologies such as CTP, blade batteries, JTM, etc., and their technological level continues to improve.
On the market side, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 was 6.8866 million units, a year-on-year increase of 95.61%.
The annual penetration rate increased from 13.4% in 2021 to 25.6%,
achieving the goal of 20% penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by 2025 in the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" ahead of schedule,
and moving towards the vision of "pure electric vehicles becoming the mainstream of new sales vehicles and comprehensive electrification of public sector vehicles" by 2035.
Consumption of lithium batteries will steadily increase
Consumer electronics products mainly include smartphones, laptops, tablets, and smart hardware.
With the rapid development of integrated circuits and Internet of Things technology,
the functions of consumer electronic products are becoming increasingly powerful,
and their application scenarios are constantly expanding, gradually becoming an indispensable necessity for people's daily life, office, and entertainment.
According to IDC data, from 2009 to 2019, the global consumer electronics industry market size rapidly increased from $245 billion to $715 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3%.
Affected by factors such as the trend of 5G smartphone replacement,
the normalization of online learning and remote work demand for laptops, and the continuous launch of emerging intelligent hardware devices,
it is expected that the consumer electronics market will continue to maintain steady growth in the future, with a market size of $939 billion by 2025.
With the rapid development of the consumer electronics industry, the shipment volume of consumer lithium batteries has grown rapidly.
According to data from China Energy Storage Network, the production of consumer lithium batteries in China reached 72GWh in 2021, achieving a year-on-year increase of 18%.
In the future, the demand for lightweight and high-performance consumer electronic products will continue to increase,
which will put forward new requirements for the battery life and charging speed of consumer lithium batteries.
GGII expects that the demand for consumer lithium batteries will continue to grow, with an annual growth rate of 5% -10%.
The development potential of the energy storage lithium battery market is enormous
The development potential of the energy storage lithium battery industry is enormous, but due to technological, policy, and cost reasons,
China's energy storage lithium battery market started relatively late.
At present, China's energy storage lithium batteries are mainly used in communication base stations, user side peak shaving and valley filling, off grid power stations, microgrids, rail transit, etc.
Some of them are also exported to Southeast Asia, Europe, America, Australia and other markets.
The new energy storage industry, as one of the key supports for carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the energy sector, is a direction strongly supported by the country.
In August 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage",
which clearly stated the main goal of achieving a new energy storage installed capacity of over 30 million kilowatts by 2025.
By 2030, achieve comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage.
Among them, the above opinions clearly require promoting the continuous cost reduction and commercial scale application of relatively mature new energy storage technologies such as lithium batteries.
Therefore, with the implementation of relevant supporting policies, the new energy storage related lithium battery industry chain will usher in significant market opportunities.
In 2022, the shipment volume of China's energy storage battery market has grown rapidly from 16.2 GWh in 2020 to 130 GWh, with a compound annual growth rate of 183.28%.
Among them, electric energy storage, household energy storage, and portable energy storage have increased by 216.2%, 354.5%, and 207.7% respectively year-on-year.
In the future, with the implementation of relevant supporting policies, coupled with factors such as the integration of new energy into the grid,
the increasing demand for new energy consumption in the power generation side, and the landing of 5G commercial applications, China's energy storage lithium battery market will further expand.
4. The competitive landscape of the lithium battery industry
① The overall industry competition pattern of cylindrical lithium battery manufacturers
According to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Cylindrical Lithium ion Battery Industry (2022)" released by EVTank,
the concentration of the global cylindrical lithium battery industry is relatively high,
with the top 9 cylindrical lithium battery manufacturers accounting for about two-thirds of the market share.
The top ranked manufacturers are Panasonic Group, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, EVE Energy, Tianpeng Power, BAK Battery, Sunpower, Lishen Battery, and Highstar.
② Industry competition pattern of lithium battery manufacturers in various segmented application fields
From the perspective of regional distribution, after years of policy encouragement, China's lithium battery industry has developed rapidly.
Major foreign lithium battery manufacturers such as Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI have established production bases in China.
Currently, China has become one of the world's most important lithium battery production areas.
From the perspective of segmented markets, there are differences in the leading enterprises in the application fields of power lithium batteries, consumer lithium batteries,
and energy storage lithium batteries, but overall they almost all show an oligopoly pattern. The specific competitive landscape of each segmented field is as follows:
Competitive landscape of power lithium batteries
a. In the field of automotive power batteries
In the field of automotive power lithium batteries, domestic enterprises are in a relatively leading position, and an oligopoly pattern of leading enterprises in China, Japan,
and South Korea has basically formed. According to statistics, in 2021, Chinese companies CATL, South Korean company LG Chem, Japanese company Panasonic, Chinese company BYD,
and South Korean company SKI respectively ranked among the top five in terms of installed power battery capacity.
The combined market share of the top five companies is about 80%, forming a relatively stable oligopoly pattern.
b. Electric light vehicle power lithium battery field
In terms of lithium-ion batteries for electric light vehicles (mainly electric two wheelers),
EVTank data shows that the production of lithium-ion two wheelers in 2021 was 13.17 million units, with an overall penetration rate of 24.2%,
driving the shipment of lithium-ion batteries for electric two wheelers to 13.1 GWh.
From the perspective of competitive landscape, according to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Electric Two Wheel Vehicle Industry (2022)" released by EVTank,
the main domestic suppliers of lithium batteries for electric two wheel vehicles in 2021 are Xingheng Power, Tianneng Shares, Xinneng Anhe, and Chaowei Battery, with a total share of over 70%.
In addition, competitors in this industry include CATL, Far East Corporation, Hengdian East Magnetic, BYD Battery, EVE Energy, Penghui Energy, Lishen Battery, etc.
c. Power lithium battery field for electric tools
In terms of lithium batteries for electric tools,
according to data from EVTank and Ive Economic Research Institute,
the global shipment volume and market size of electric tools are expected to be 510 million units and 57.19 billion US dollars respectively in 2022.
It is expected that by 2026, the global shipment volume of electric tools will exceed 700 million units, and the market size will exceed 80 billion US dollars.
Driven by the growth of the global electric tool market, it is expected that the global demand for lithium batteries in electric tools will exceed 4 billion by 2026.
From the perspective of competitive landscape, international lithium battery manufacturers started early and occupied a large market space: in 2017, Samsung SDI, LG Chem,
and Murata accounted for about 75% of the market share in the field of electric tool batteries.
Since 2018, against the backdrop of continuous breakthroughs in domestic high rate lithium battery technology and international lithium battery manufacturers focusing on the field of automotive power batteries,
multiple domestic lithium battery suppliers such as EVE Energy, Lishen Battery, BAK Battery,
and Tianpeng Power have respectively passed certifications from one or more well-known power tool manufacturers such as TTI, Bosch, Stanley Best, and Baoshide,
entering the supply chain of international power tool manufacturers and gradually replacing the share of foreign battery manufacturers.
According to EVTank data, in terms of the penetration rate of lithium-ion two wheeled vehicles in 2021,
the "new national standard" and the entry of well-known enterprises will be long-term drivers to accelerate the replacement of lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries.
5. Characteristics of lithium battery industry
① The safety issues of lithium batteries urgently need to be addressed
Against the backdrop of the trend of new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles,
lithium batteries are currently the main power batteries used in electric vehicles due to their high energy density, high discharge power, and long cycle life.
However, in recent years, safety accidents caused by thermal runaway of lithium batteries have occasionally occurred, posing a threat to consumers' lives and property safety.
In order to address the safety issues of lithium batteries and promote the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles in China,
the country has released the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles".
This standard has been implemented since 2021 and requires lithium batteries to undergo rigorous safety testing before leaving the factory,
including 6 safety tests for the battery cell and 15 safety tests for the battery system, to ensure the safe use of lithium batteries.
With the implementation of mandatory standards, the safety threshold for lithium batteries has significantly increased,
and the degree of protection of battery safety will be increasingly valued by production enterprises, end users, and government regulatory departments.
How lithium battery companies can minimize the safety issues of lithium batteries is a challenge faced by lithium batteries and related industries.
② Multiple technological routes coexist for lithium batteries
In recent years, the commercial application of lithium batteries has developed rapidly.
In response to the increasing demand for lithium batteries in end use markets such as new energy vehicles, emerging technologies for lithium batteries continue to emerge,
presenting a situation where multiple technological routes coexist. At present, the technological differences in lithium batteries mainly manifest in the positive electrode material system and packaging form.
One is that there are differences in the technology routes of positive electrode materials for lithium batteries.
The positive electrode material is an important component of lithium batteries, and its characteristics have a significant impact on the energy density, cycle life, safety performance, etc.
The technical routes mainly include ternary materials, lithium manganese oxide, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, etc.
Precision structural components and materials of batteries can be widely used as packaging or conductive materials for lithium batteries due to their strong versatility,
and are generally not affected by the technology route of positive electrode materials.
The second difference is the packaging form of lithium batteries.
The packaging form refers to the packaging structure of a single lithium battery,
and different packaging forms require different manufacturing processes and correspond to different forms of battery precision structural components.
At present, the packaging technology route for lithium batteries mainly includes three forms: cylindrical, square,
and soft pack. At present, cylindrical, square, and soft pack lithium batteries each have their own advantages and disadvantages,
presenting a competitive landscape of "three parts of the world" in the global market, and all have significant market development space.
In September 2020, Tesla launched a 46800 large cylindrical battery solution.
Compared with traditional small cylindrical batteries, large cylindrical battery technology can reduce the number of batteries and corresponding structural components in the battery pack, improve energy density,
simplify battery management system requirements, and have the disadvantage of higher requirements than square batteries.
From the current progress, Tesla has achieved mass production of 4680 large cylindrical batteries in 2022,
with a weekly production capacity of 868000 units, corresponding to the demand for approximately 1000 Model Y.
In September 2022, BMW Group announced the use of 46 series cylindrical battery cells in its new models starting from 2025, and locked in the first batch of partners as CATL and EVE Energy.
Other well-known battery manufacturers at home and abroad are also steadily advancing the layout of 4680 large cylindrical batteries.